2019 Draft Guide: Pace Report
“Pace and space” is all the rage in the NBA these days. League-wide, teams are looking for the accelerator and pumping out more and more possessions per contest. That’s great news for fantasy players, who see all those extra possessions turn into additional stats.
Our work needs to be done in determining which teams are primed for big relative jumps in an ecosystem where a rising tide is floating everyone’s boat. The fine folks at NBA.com have cooked up plenty of fun stats to look at that can help us suss out who is driving the bus and which players are just tagging along for a leisurely stroll. Let’s dive in.
Atlanta Hawks
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 104.56 (1)
Coach: Lloyd Pierce
Relevant Arrivals: De’Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Jabari Parker, Evan Turner, Bruno Fernando, Damian Jones
Relevant Departures: Kent Bazemore, Dewayne Dedmon, Omari Spellman
- The big swap for Atlanta is Alex Len presumably in for Dedmon. Len sported a pace of 107.31 (third-fastest in the league) last season, while Dedmon checked in at 103.89.
- John Collins missed the first 15 games of last season, in which the Hawks posted a pace of 106.87. They delivered a 104.05 mark after his return, though the sample size there makes us skeptical that something major shifted.
- They posted fairly similar marks before and after the All-Star break, which suggests that Trae Young’s explosive finish didn’t change things drastically.
- Of the Hawks’ fastest three-man lineups last season, only the Collins-Young-Kevin Huerter group remains (Dedmon and Prince were common fixtures) out of eight that logged more than 500 minutes together.
- When we change that threshold to 300 minutes, however, a Len-Young-Huerter combo ranks second of 28 lineups with a pace of 109.95.
- Among four-man lineups that logged over 100 minutes together, a Len-Young-Huerter-Collins group ranked fourth with a pace of 112.12. Out of all such lineups that can still be used, that group ranked second in net rating at minus-2.3 -- a Collins-Young-Huerter-DeAndre’ Bembry group comes in first at minus-1.1.
- Keep an eye on the backup PG battle, as things may move a little more slowly in the second unit with no traditional PG on the roster to take the reins.
Verdict: The Hawks might not lead the league again, but they’re going to be near the top in pace. A run-and-gun game really suits Trae Young, and a full season of Collins is only going to increase Atlanta’s athletic edge over opponents. Len, somewhat surprisingly, looks like he’ll help the Hawks up the tempo as well.
Boston Celtics
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 100.43 (16)
Coach: Brad Stevens
Relevant Arrivals: Kemba Walker, Enes Kanter
Relevant Departures: Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Terry Rozier, Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes
- This team is going to be very tough to read given the major players that left this summer. Of 48 three-man lineups that logged over 250 minutes together last season, only three remain: Gordon Hayward-Marcus Smart-Jayson Tatum (310 minutes), Hayward-Tatum-Jaylen Brown (385) and Hayward-Brown-Daniel Theis (391).
- All three of those groups were above Boston’s average pace, though it was the Hayward-Brown-Theis one that led the way at 104.13.
- The Smart-Brown-Tatum combo logged 237 minutes together and played at a pace of 105.07.
- The Celtics were a 100.68 pace team with Tatum on the court and a 103.37 pace team with him on the bench.
- Only twice has Kanter posted a pace north of 100.00.
- Walker has never posted a pace above 100.00, while last season Irving was at 102.01. That’s an imperfect comparison given all the context that helps create pace, but it’s something to note.
- Robert Williams posted a 102.84 pace in 32 games, though he only saw 8.8 minutes per night. It’s about even with Aron Baynes (102.92) but you’d expect his athleticism to overtake the Aussie’s ground-and-pound as the sample increases.
Verdict: The Celtics are looking like a middling pace team once again, though taking the ball out of the hands of Irving and Horford could encourage younger players like Tatum and Brown to get out and run more. We might see Boston tick down a little bit given the personnel changes but the case for improved cohesion after a dysfunctional campaign is one big thing working in their favor.
Brooklyn Nets
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 101.51 (11)
Coach: Kenny Atkinson
Relevant Arrivals: Kyrie Irving, Taurean Prince, DeAndre Jordan, Wilson Chandler, Garrett Temple
Relevant Departures: D’Angelo Russell, DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Allen Crabbe, Jared Dudley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
- The Nets, like any team that will change their starting point guard, will be somewhat unpredictable here given how many lineup groups we’ll have to remove from our analysis.
- Irving and Jordan both worked at a slower pace than Russell and Jarrett Allen, though Prince was faster than Carroll.
- Cross-team comparisons should be taken with a heavy grain of salt but Prince was a common name amongst Atlanta’s highest-pace lineup combos last season.
- Carroll was in five of Brooklyn’s six fastest three-man lineups that played at least 100 minutes together.
- In Atkinson’s seasons as Brooklyn’s coach, the Nets have gone 101.75 (1st), 99.66 (6th) and 101.51 (11th). That speaks more to the rest of the league speeding up than the Nets consciously slowing it down.
- The Nets run a deep rotation which means a ton of different lineups, but of five-man groups that logged more than 20 minutes together last season (again, there were a lot of lineups), the fastest-paced one was comprised of Spencer Dinwiddie-Joe Harris-Caris LeVert-Jarett Allen-Rodions Kurucs (115.67, though it only appeared in nine games).
- Dinwiddie, Harris and Kurucs are common players in Brooklyn’s fastest, returning three-man lineups (min. 250 minutes).
Verdict: The Nets may float around in terms of ranking but they figure to stay in a similar pace neighborhood. They’re built on effort and shooting, and there aren’t many ways to play that game other than fast. If Irving can avoid hero ball then there shouldn’t be much change.
Charlotte Hornets
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 99.18 (21)
Coach: James Borrego
Relevant Arrivals: Terry Rozier
Relevant Departures: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb
- Losing your starting guards will cause a lot of turnover -- Of Charlotte’s three-man lineups that logged over 250 minutes together last season, only two of 26 will be able to share the floor this season: Willy Hernangomez-Miles Bridges-Malik Monk and Marvin Williams-Nic Batum-Cody Zeller.
- When looking at this roster, it’s probably smartest to identify the core pieces and hope that the team adapts to their style of play. Miles Bridges certainly qualifies, and he checked in with a pace of 101.30 last season.
- Rozier is going to get huge minutes and had a pace of 100.91 last season on a Celtics team that was middle-of-the-pack. They were faster with him off the court.
- Bridges and Monk delivered the two highest pace numbers of all the regulars last season, so hopefully this is the season where they’re handed the reins and drag the other Hornets upward.
- Last season’s mark put the Hornets 21st, but in 2017-18 they ranked 10th with a pace of 98.66.
Verdict: The Hornets may try to play to the strengths of Bridges, but ultimately we’re looking at a team that’s lagging a bit behind the times. They haven’t consciously slowed down under James Borrego but other teams have certainly sped up, and at present Charlotte lacks dynamic talent and will probably need to grind out wins rather than get into run-and-gun affairs.
Chicago Bulls
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 99.30 (20)
Coach: Jim Boylen
Relevant Arrivals: Tomas Satoransky, Thad Young, Coby White, Daniel Gafford, Luke Kornet
Relevant Departures: Robin Lopez
- The Bulls fired Fred Hoiberg on December 3. Up to that point the team played at a 100.89 (16th) pace.
- Under Jim Boylen, the Bulls played at a pace of 98.64 (23rd) over the final 58 games.
- Chicago dealt with a lot of injuries last season which prevented their core group from logging a lot of minutes together, though the big three of Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. played to a pace of 99.25 in 297 minutes together.
- A three-man group of Otto Porter, LaVine and Markkanen went 102.50 in 325 minutes.
- Satoransky (102.35) played at a much higher pace than Kris Dunn (99.50), though Dunn has generally played faster than Sato over their respective careers.
Verdict: While the Bulls have the sort of young talent that would suggest a quick attack, Jim Boylen’s dedication to old school basketball makes us skeptical that Chicago will play much faster next season. We can expect them to increase their raw number slightly given the personnel changes but tempo doesn’t look like a point of emphasis.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 97.38 (29)
Coach: John Beilein
Relevant Arrivals: Darius Garland, Dylan Windler, Kevin Porter
Relevant Departures: None, really
- The Cavs slowed way down with LeBron James gone and Kevin Love missing most of the season, plummeting from 9th in 2017-18 (98.72) to 29th this past year.
- Let’s treat Kevin Love as the centerpiece of the roster for the time being, since he’s going to set the tone as the team’s best player when he’s on the floor.
- A four-man group of Love-Jordan Clarkson-Cedi Osman-Collin Sexton played at a 107.58 pace in 116 minutes.
- A group of Love-Clarkson-Osman-Larry Nance Jr. played at a 104.54 pace in 52 minutes.
- In 53 minutes, a Love-Clarkson-Nance-Sexton group played at a 103.29 pace.
- Love-Nance-Osman-Sexton went 100.55 in 126 minutes.
- Love-Osman-Sexton-Tristan Thompson, which should be four fifths of the starting lineup, played at a 103.64 pace in 70 minutes.
- In general, Love and Clarkson had positive impacts on whichever teammates they took the court with, while Nance slowed things down.
- Among two-man combos that logged more than 200 minutes together, Love and Clarkson led the way with a 103.85 pace.
- Love and Sexton were third at 101.97.
Verdict: The Cavs should definitely improve upon last season’s marks, assuming Kevin Love is healthy. John Beilein has already mentioned two-PG lineups and the young Cavs should be able to get out and run a bit more. The potential for guys like Love and Clarkson to get traded might mess with things in the second half but a lot of Cleveland’s important players weren’t responsible for the team’s glacial pace.
Dallas Mavericks
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 99.60 (19)
Coach: Rick Carlisle
Relevant Arrivals: Kristaps Porzingis, Delon Wright, Seth Curry
Relevant Departures: Dirk Nowitzki
- Luka Doncic ranked right about in the middle of Dallas’ pace rankings, clocking in at eighth out of 16 Mavs who appeared in more than three games with a pace of 100.99.
- Delon Wright should be a small boost to the system after he posted a pace of 101.30 last season.
- Of Doncic’s two-man combos that shared the floor for more than 200 minutes, his highest pace marks came alongside a true point guard. Not really surprising, but Wright’s presence looms even larger.
- Doncic and Dwight Powell played at a 101.49 pace in 687 minutes together -- he and Maxi Kleber were at 100.73.
- In the last five years, the Mavs have ranked 8th, 22nd, 28th, 26th and now 19th in pace. Rick Carlisle doesn’t seem like someone who’s itching to find the gas pedal.
- Kristaps Porzingis has only been slightly above the Knicks’ team-wide pace in his three healthy seasons, so that shouldn’t force a major shift in philosophy.
Verdict: The Mavs just don’t look like a team that’s set to break things open. Their move away from a lumbering Dirk and a traditional center might help increase things marginally but the Mavs haven’t been above the median in pace since they had Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons, Tyson Chandler and Rajon Rondo. That track record doesn’t figure to change overnight.
Denver Nuggets
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 98.49 (26)
Coach: Michael Malone
Relevant Arrivals: Jerami Grant
Relevant Departures: None
- Since Michael Malone took over, the Nuggets have ranked 17th, 6th, 15th and 26th in pace.
- It’s at least worth mentioning that Denver slowed things down last season after their defensive work was questioned following the 2017-18 campaign.
- Grant’s going to take over the backup PF minutes and should get something resembling a starter’s workload anyway -- he had a pace of 104.64 on the Thunder last season.
- Nikola Jokic was dead last on the team with a 98.40 pace.
- When Jokic was off the court, the Nuggets played at a 102.53 pace. That’s the fastest they played with any single player on the bench.
- Among true rotation regulars, Malik Beasley checked in the fastest with a pace of 100.59.
- Jokic was actually the only player to come in under the team average, though only Beasley and Will Barton cleared the century mark.
- Though Barton missed tons of time, the Nuggets were at a 100.16 pace when he was on the floor and at 98.72 when he wasn’t.
Verdict: The Nuggets shouldn’t see a drastic change since they didn’t do much to remold the roster this offseason. Perhaps a healthy Barton and more Grant create a slightly faster version of the Nuggets, but the fact that they’re at their best when Nikola Jokic is picking defenses apart means that they won’t be in any rush.
Detroit Pistons
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 97.88 (28)
Coach: Dwane Casey
Relevant Arrivals: Derrick Rose, Tony Snell, Markieff Morris, Christian Wood
Relevant Departures: Ish Smith, Wayne Ellington
- Casey’s Raptors were never all that fast -- and they were built around All-Star guards -- so this isn’t surprising.
- The Blake Griffin-Andre Drummond duo played the most of any Pistons pair with 1,979 minutes, delivering a pace mark of 98.64.
- The trio of Griffin, Drummond and Reggie Jackson played at a 98.98 pace.
- Should Detroit promote Luke Kennard to the starting lineup, it’s worth pointing out that the foursome of Griffin-Drummond-Jackson-Kennard played at a 100.40 pace, third-highest of all four-man groups that logged more than 200 minutes together.
- That’s notable since Kennard’s individual pace of 97.34 was actually the lowest of any Piston.
- Langston Galloway stood out among regulars with a pace of 99.96, which is worth remembering in case he enters the mix for a starting job.
- Derrick Rose posted a pace of 103.61 last season, though he did a lot of work as the clear lead guard when others were hurt.
- In terms of the backup battle, Thon Maker did have a positive pace impact when he was on the floor.
Verdict: While some lineup groups do give the Pistons a pathway to playing faster, it’s hard to see them mounting a big charge up the pace rankings with the way their roster is constructed. Expect another slow season in the Motor City.
Golden State Warriors
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 101.73 (10)
Coach: Steve Kerr
Relevant Arrivals: D’Angelo Russell, Willie Cauley-Stein, Alec Burks, Jordan Poole
Relevant Departures: Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala, DeMarcus Cousins, Shaun Livingston, Quinn Cook
- Under Steve Kerr the Warriors have ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 10th in pace.
- Like many teams, that is a bit misleading as times change -- the Warriors posted the highest pace of the Kerr era last season yet finished with their lowest ranking.
- D’Angelo Russell is coming over from a Nets team that also plays quickly so we’re not betting on a big adjustment for either side there.
- Russell was extremely reliant on pick-and-rolls with Jarrett Allen last season, and Brooklyn did play faster with D’Lo off the floor.
- Most of last season’s numbers won’t be useful guidelines between the core players that have left and Klay Thompson’s injury, but the Steph Curry-Draymond Green-Kevon Looney group played to a 104.60 pace in 491 minutes while the Curry-Green-Alfonzo McKinnie group was at 105.56 in 269 minutes.
- Cauley-Stein posted a 104.58 pace last season on the fleet-footed Kings and is unlikely to drag the speed down. They were slower with him than without him, but that’s more indicative of how damn fast Sacramento played.
- Curry, Green and McKinnie were the top three Warriors in terms of pace last season, with Curry owning the largest on-off impact.
Verdict: The Warriors certainly look different but they should still be playing quickly. With Curry and Green leading the charge, Golden State may even up the tempo again.
Houston Rockets
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 98.39 (27)
Coach: Mike D’Antoni
Relevant Arrivals: Russell Westbrook, Tyson Chandler
Relevant Departures: Chris Paul, Nene
- D’Antoni will always be remembered for those ‘7 seconds or less’ Suns of 2005-06. They led the league with a pace of 96.92, which would’ve put them dead last this season. The times, they are a-changin.
- The Rockets really fly against that D’Antoni aura since they’ve been blessed with elite isolation players.
- James Harden was last on the Rockets with a 98.06 pace last season.
- Russell Westbrook posted a 104.93 pace in his final season with OKC, though they also made a big jump up the rankings as a team, which clouds some of that.
- Of all the three-man lineups that can be assembled of Harden, Clint Capela, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker, only Harden-Tucker-Gordon (100.07) had a pace over 100.00.
- Those four posted a pace of 99.53 in 872 minutes together, as well as a net rating of plus-7.2.
- It was Houston’s most-used four-man lineup last season.
Verdict: James Harden can take his time because nobody can stop him, and the Rockets have no incentive to deviate from that. The Westbrook addition might kickstart the transition game when Harden is on the bench but we’re only looking at a modest increase, if any at all.
Indiana Pacers
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 98.64 (25)
Coach: Nate McMillan
Relevant Arrivals: Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb, T.J. Warren
Relevant Departures: Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young, Darren Collison, Wesley Matthews, Cory Joseph, Tyreke Evans
- Under Nate McMillan the Pacers have ranked 18th, 21st and 25th in pace.
- Up to Victor Oladipo’s injury on January 23, the Pacers ranked 24th in the league with a pace of 98.92.
- There wasn’t a major change but they were 26th at a pace of 98.17 from that point on.
- That’s not surprising with Indiana’s lack of sheer scoring talent sans Oladipo, though they weren’t exactly lighting things up with him around.
- Four of Indiana’s six slowest players are gone, with Oladipo (second-last) and Myles Turner (fourth-last) still around.
- The Pacers have lost three of their five starters from the postseason, and Oladipo isn’t expected to return until January if not later. Lineup data from last season won’t help a ton.
- Add in the fact that the Pacers reportedly plan to start Turner and Domantas Sabonis together, and the useful combos from last season get extremely spotty. Those two had previously been like oil and water, rarely seeing the floor together.
- Turner-Sabonis took the court for 429 minutes across 64 games, under seven per showing. They posted a pace of 101.76.
- Brogdon is coming from a supremely fast Bucks team, while Lamb’s Hornets weren’t that much quicker than the Pacers last season.
- Aaron Holiday is one standout player in terms of pace, though a good chunk of his minutes came in low-leverage situations.
Verdict: The Pacers may get a little bit faster given all of the changes they’ve undergone this summer, but between McMillan’s track record and the lack of real transition threats on the roster we wouldn’t expect them to find the accelerator. They’ll still be on the slower side of things.
LA Clippers
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 102.66 (7)
Coach: Doc Rivers
Relevant Arrivals: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Moe Harkless
Relevant Departures: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari
- The Clippers have been ranked 7th in pace in both seasons since the end of Lob City, though they did make a jump from 99.54 in 2017-18 to last season’s mark as the league continues to place a premium on pace.
- Last season, the Raptors played at a pace of 100.33 when Kawhi Leonard was on the court. They were at 102.33 without him.
- Oklahoma City was at 104.35 with Paul George on the floor and 105.14 with him on the bench, though that number is a little less insightful than Leonard’s given the quality of OKC’s depth and the situations where George would be off the floor.
- Among relevant four-man lineups from last season, Lou Williams-Landry Shamet-Patrick Beverley-Montrezl Harrell posted a pace of 107.99 in 98 minutes together.
- Williams-Beverley-Shamet was even higher at 108.46 in 129 minutes.
- The Clippers played faster without Beverley, Shamet and Harrell off the floor but got a big jump from Lou Will - they were 102.24 with him on the bench and 105.67 with him on the court.
Verdict: The Clippers are likely to slow down a bit this year given the additions of Leonard and George, as well as the impact that will have on Williams’ playing time. They won’t sink to the bottom of the rankings but a slip outside the top-10 is probably a safe bet.
Los Angeles Lakers
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 103.60 (4)
Coach: Frank Vogel
Relevant Arrivals: Anthony Davis, Danny Green, Avery Bradley, Dwight Howard
Relevant Departures: Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Reggie Bullock
- Somewhat surprisingly, the Lakers didn’t have a major pace differential when LeBron James was and wasn’t on the court.
- The same can be said, even more surprisingly, about Rajon Rondo.
- Ball and Hart tended to yield faster play, but there weren’t any other standouts among the Lakers’ big names.
- James and Kyle Kuzma played to a pace of 104.67 in 1,445 minutes.
- James-Kuzma-JaVale McGee posted a pace of 105.30 while James-Rondo-McGee went at 107.66 and James-Rondo-Kuzma only went for 105.65.
- The Pelicans played faster without Anthony Davis on the floor (103.73 to 105.16).
- The Raptors played faster without Danny Green on the floor (100.98 to 102.46).
- The Grizzlies played slower without Avery Bradley on the floor (101.26 to 99.60) though a lot of Bradley’s minutes came when the Grizzlies were dealing with lots of injuries and far removed from meaningful games.
- Going back five years prior to last season’s nine-game campaign, Dwight Howard’s teams played faster with him off the court in all five years.
- Frank Vogel’s Pacers teams ranked 20th, 25th, 23rd and 22nd in pace (they were 6th in the year where he took over mid-season). His Magic teams ranked 14th and 12th.
Verdict: Vogel’s coaching track record makes it hard to envision the Lakers repeating their effort from this past season. There’s a lot of pieces that will need time to fit together here and Los Angeles will likely allow LeBron to organize things at whatever pace is necessary. Expect a slower Lakers team this season.
Memphis Grizzlies
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 97.15 (30)
Coach: Taylor Jenkins
Relevant Arrivals: Ja Morant, Tyus Jones, Brandon Clarke, Jae Crowder, Josh Jackson, De’Anthony Melton, Grayson Allen, maybe Andre Iguodala
Relevant Departures: Mike Conley, Delon Wright, Avery Bradley, Justin Holiday
- Almost none of Memphis’ lineups from last season will hold anything significant since they lost their two main starting point guards and Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas shared the court for only 28 minutes.
- The Grizzlies also have lots of questions and potential new starters at shooting guard.
- Starting small forward Kyle Anderson only played 43 games.
- Memphis’ bench is almost entirely turned over.
- Jenkins comes from the Bucks, which is a good sign in terms of pace.
- In his introductory press conference he emphasized defense but also hinted at improved ball movement, more threes and a more modern style of play.
Verdict: The Grizzlies almost have to be faster than they were last season, though we can at least say that they will be with some certainty given the Jenkins hiring alone. A lot will depend on how Morant takes to the NBA but the Grizz are not going to be dead last again, and could be the team that makes a notable jump up the rankings.
Miami Heat
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 98.74 (23)
Coach: Erik Spoelstra
Relevant Arrivals: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Meyers Leonard
Relevant Departures: Josh Richardson, Hassan Whiteside, Dwyane Wade
- The Heat were at their fastest when Richardson and/or Whiteside was off the floor, per on-off metrics.
- Unfortunately, they were also slightly faster without Bam Adebayo than they were without Whiteside.
- Goran Dragic’s injuries appeared to have a major effect on Miami, as they played at a 102.52 pace (team-high among regulars) with him on the floor and were at 98.23 when he wasn’t.
- A three-man lineup of Dragic-Winslow-Adebayo posted a pace of 105.28 in 144 minutes together, tops among all potential returning groups.
- Dragic-Winslow was Miami’s second-fastest two-man combo last season, while Dragic-Adebayo was fifth. The other three in the top five feature players who are gone.
- The Sixers were a 102.49 pace team with Jimmy Butler on the floor and a 104.59 team with him on the bench.
Verdict: Miami’s capable of speeding things up, especially if Dragic can get a full season in, but the integration of Butler figures to drag them back to neutral a bit. They probably won’t outdo last season’s rank by much, if at all.
Milwaukee Bucks
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 103.57 (5)
Coach: Mike Budenholzer
Relevant Arrivals: Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, Kyle Korver
Relevant Departures: Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic
- The Bucks have an embarrassment of riches in a way here, as every relevant three-man lineup played at a pace over 105.00.
- Four of Milwaukee’s presumptive five starters, Giannis Antetokounmpo-Eric Bledsoe-Khris Middleton-Brook Lopez, posted a pace of 106.86.
- That pretty much erases any concerns about the Bucks playing faster without their stars on the floor -- we don’t have to fret about the on/off numbers.
- The Pacers played slower with Wesley Matthews on the floor than they did with him off, but the overall pace of the rest of the Bucks shouldn’t be seriously affected by a 3-and-D role player.
Verdict: The Bucks found great success running behind the most nightmarish transition player in the league. They’ve added more shooters and lost a playmaker around him, so we’re expecting Milwaukee to place heavy emphasis on getting the ball and moving as quickly as possible. Why change what worked last year?
Minnesota Timberwolves
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 100.88 (13)
Coach: Ryan Saunders
Relevant Arrivals: Jarrett Culver, Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh, Jake Layman, Shabazz Napier
Relevant Departures: Dario Saric, Derrick Rose, Tyus Jones, Taj Gibson
- The Wolves ranked 12th in pace (101.11) when Tom Thibodeau was fired.
- After Ryan Saunders took over, Minnesota was ranked 16th with a 100.67 pace.
- Injuries to Jeff Teague and Robert Covington cloud a lot of Minnesota’s late-season data in terms of lineups, though a Teague-Covington-Karl-Anthony Towns-Andrew Wiggins group played to a 99.41 pace in 270 minutes.
- A three-man group of Wiggins-Towns-Josh Okogie played to a 103.10 pace in 811 minutes.
- Towns and Covington were among the biggest drags on pace by on/off numbers.
- Okogie, who figures to take on a larger role, had one of the biggest boosts to the team’s pace.
- The departed Dario Saric and Derrick Rose also had positive impacts.
Verdict: The Wolves will run through Karl-Anthony Towns, and teams that run through their centers tend to be slower as a simple matter of fact. Look for Minnesota to remain a middling pace team, as the first sample of Saunders didn’t reveal much to make us think that he’s going to push for a run-and-gun style. The door is open for them to play faster given all of the health issues that affected the rotation last season, but we’re not anticipating a substantial move in either direction.
New Orleans Pelicans
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 103.89 (2)
Coach: Alvin Gentry
Relevant Arrivals: Zion Williamson, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, J.J Redick, Derrick Favors, Josh Hart
Relevant Departures: Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton
- Alvin Gentry has already said that he would be disappointed if the Pelicans didn’t lead the league in pace next season.
- He also identified Ingram, Favors and Williamson as rebounders who can immediately push the ball up the floor a la Draymond Green.
- The Pelicans played faster without Anthony Davis and/or Julius Randle on the floor last season, though the same can be said of Jrue Holiday and the team was still moving briskly either way.
- Both Lonzo Ball and Ingram had positive impacts on the Lakers’ pace by on/off numbers.
- The same goes for J.J. Redick in Philadelphia.
- The Jazz were moderately faster with Derrick Favors off the floor last season but it’s a mild difference (102.36 on vs. 102.63 off).
Verdict: When the coach says that leading the league in pace is a big goal, you know what to expect. New Orleans has lots of young athletes and will have the pedal to the metal this year.
New York Knicks
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 100.16 (17)
Coach: David Fizdale
Relevant Arrivals: Julius Randle, Bobby Portis, R.J. Barrett, Elfrid Payton, Marcus Morris, Wayne Ellington, Taj Gibson, Reggie Bullock
Relevant Departures: DeAndre Jordan, Emmanuel Mudiay, Noah Vonleh, Mario Hezonja, Luke Kornet
- Fizdale made mincemeat of the rotation and between that and the tanking the Knicks trotted out different groups pretty much every night.
- They had 40 different three-man lineups log over 200 minutes together, but only seven over 400 and one over 500.
- Only three five-man lineups saw more than 100 minutes together, with the most-used one seeing 166 minutes together.
- 98 two-man combinations saw more than 100 minutes together.
- In trying to find something meaningful, we’ll focus on young players: Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and Dennis Smith Jr.
- Knox and Robinson played to a 103.76 pace in 673 minutes together.
- Smith-Knox and Smith-Robinson groups were at 102.14 and 102.18, respectively.
- A Smith-Knox-Robinson group put up a pace of 105.49 in 117 minutes.
- There aren’t any real standouts in terms of on/off numbers from last season, so all those departures might not have an obvious effect until you dive into specific lineup groups.
- Among the newcomers with positive on/off impacts: Payton, Morris, Ellington and Bullock.
- That leaves Randle, Gibson and Portis with negative impacts.
Verdict: This rotation figures to be a mess again, though we would expect the Knicks to increase their pace somewhat given the boost of Robinson over DeAndre Jordan and a full season of Smith and Payton, who both had larger pace differentials than Mudiay. There are flashes of a fast team when you isolate the core players, but whether Fizdale will give them enough consistent run to find their rhythm remains to be seen.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 103.38 (6)
Coach: Billy Donovan
Relevant Arrivals: Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala
Relevant Departures: Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Jerami Grant, Markieff Morris
- The Thunder just lost three of their five starters from last season, including their two best players, so we’re not going to find a lot of worthwhile lineup information from last season.
- Westbrook was immense in OKC’s concerted effort to get out in transition -- the team posted its lowest pace when he was off the floor.
- One of the few relevant combos that remains from last season is Dennis Schroder-Steven Adams, which produced a pace of 106.56 in 1,347 minutes last season (about 17.5 mpg).
- Although Paul was actually a moderate boost to Houston’s pace (pretty much anyone is able to lift the Rockets in the brief moments where James Harden isn’t on the floor), both Gilgeous-Alexander (103.26 on vs. 104.89 off) and Gallinari (101.58 on vs. 105.60 off) were drags on the Clippers.
Verdict: The Thunder are probably still too good to tank but no longer have Westbrook’s elite athleticism to build their attack around, which means that transition play is going to be less of a focus. OKC is going to slow it down to allow Paul and SGA to work in a more traditional point guard capacity.
Orlando Magic
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 98.65 (24)
Coach: Steve Clifford
Relevant Arrivals: Al-Farouq Aminu, Markelle Fultz (we’re counting him since he didn’t suit up for the Magic last year)
Relevant Departures: None
- The Magic found a strong defensive identity under Steve Clifford with Nikola Vucevic as their offensive hub and brought the band back together, so this should be fairly predictable.
- The only rotation regulars to have positive on/off pace impacts were Michael Carter-Williams, Wes Iwundu, Mo Bamba and Terrence Ross (though Ross’ is basically negligible at 99.90 and 99.60).
- Orlando’s starters (Vucevic-Gordon-Isaac-Fournier-Augustin) produced a pace of 99.19.
- The same group with Ross in place of Isaac checks in at 102.18, while Ross instead of Gordon results in a pace of 103.80 and a lineup with Iwundu in place of Gordon comes in at 107.77.
The starters with Ross in place of Fournier posted a pace of 109.17, though they only played 29 minutes together.
- The Sixers played faster with Fultz on the court though the sample is obviously quite small.
Verdict: Orlando kept everything in place from last year which means that it would take a mid-season deal to really shake things up. Look for the Magic to settle near the bottom of the pace rankings again.
Philadelphia 76ers
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 102.59 (8)
Coach: Brett Brown
Relevant Arrivals: Al Horford, Josh Richardson, Matisse Thybulle, Raul Neto, Trey Burke
Relevant Departures: Jimmy Butler, J.J. Redick, T.J. McConnell, Boban Marjanovic
- Philly’s starting five after the trade deadline played at a 106.78 pace in 161 minutes together, with Joel Embiid’s knee woes limiting the sample significantly.
- Embiid-Simmons-Tobias Harris posted a 105.66 pace in 248 minutes together (20.7 mpg).
- The Sixers were a 102.49 pace team with Jimmy Butler on the floor and a 104.59 team with him on the bench.
- The Sixers were a 105.14 pace team with J.J. Redick on the floor and a 103.44 team with him on the bench.
- Butler took on a lot of the backup point guard work, but if Ben Simmons can continue to improve and earn more and more minutes that will bode well -- Simmons as well as new backup options Raul Neto and Trey Burke all saw their teams play faster whenever they were on the court.
- Both Horford and Richardson were pace drags on their previous teams.
Verdict: This one could be interesting, and it may ride on Embiid’s health, as it always does for Philly. Ben Simmons is a terror in the open floor and the Sixers should look to push the pace. Their new group of primary ball-handlers seems to meet that end, but the other players that Philadelphia added do not. We would expect Simmons and his new max contract to absorb most of the responsibilities that Butler has left behind, which leads us to predict a slightly faster version of the team on offense, but a more imposing defensive version that grinds opponents deep into the shot clock. Perhaps it all grades out to no major change.
Phoenix Suns
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 101.15 (12)
Coach: Monty Williams
Relevant Arrivals: Ricky Rubio, Dario Saric, Aron Baynes, Cameron Johnson, Ty Jerome
Relevant Departures: T.J. Warren, Richaun Holmes, Josh Jackson, De’Anthony Melton
- Ricky Rubio had a slight negative impact on pace, with the Jazz playing at 101.92 with Rubio on the floor and 102.21 without him.
- Devin Booker and Tyler Johnson, the other proven ball-handlers, were both notable positives.
- The Suns clearly have a lot invested in Deandre Ayton, which points to a slower playstyle -- they were 101.34 with him on the floor and 103.48 with him on the bench.
- Kelly Oubre is just about the opposite: 103.47 on and 101.79 off.
- A Booker-Ayton two-man lineup checks in at a 101.89 pace, though Booker-Oubre and Booker-Mikal Bridges come in at 104.96 and 103.53, respectively.
- Oubre-Booker-Ayton produced a 103.58 pace in 436 minutes together while Oubre-Bridges-Ayton delivered a 105.30 mark and Oubre-Booker-Bridges led all three-man lineups (minimum 200 minutes) with a pace of 107.69.
- Those four combine to post a 106.96 pace in 180 minutes together. Hopefully those are four of the five starters on opening night.
- That’s with all due respect to Dario Saric, who had a positive pace impact during his run with the Wolves.
Verdict: While Ayton is naturally slower as a center who can’t space the floor quite yet, it’s clear that he can still be part of faster lineups and doesn’t necessarily drag down Phoenix’s other core pieces. How a cerebral guy like Rubio fits in is still up for debate, but the Suns could very well increase their pace with a true point guard around to keep the offense flowing smoothly.
Portland Trail Blazers
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 99.96 (18)
Coach: Terry Stotts
Relevant Arrivals: Hassan Whiteside, Kent Bazemore, Mario Hezonja
Relevant Departures: Al-Farouq Aminu, Moe Harkless, Seth Curry, Enes Kanter, Evan Turner, Jake Layman
- The Blazers are missing their starting forwards and center (though Jusuf Nurkic will be back eventually), which means any lineup information is going to come entirely based on Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
- Dame and C.J. posted a pace of 101.71 in 2,054 minutes.
- Portland played at a pace of 101.57 with Nurkic on the floor and 100.50 with him on the bench.
- Hassan Whiteside is going to represent an upgrade on Enes Kanter, but the Heat were still faster with the big man on the bench. He’s like a middle ground between Nurkic and Kanter.
- Zach Collins replacing Aminu looks like a small decrease too.
- Rodney Hood also slowed the Blazers down, which means fantasy players should be pulling for Kent Bazemore in the wing battle.
- Atlanta played at a 106.15 pace with Bazemore last season and a 105.34 pace without him.
Verdict: Lillard is the big driver of Portland’s pace, and the team can’t really dial up his minutes any more to help counteract the effects of replacing Nurkic with Whiteside and Aminu with Collins. If Bazemore can take a starting spot from Hood then the Blazers might be able to play a faster game but we would expect them to end up around the 20 spot in the rankings again.
Sacramento Kings
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 103.88 (3)
Coach: Luke Walton
Relevant Arrivals: Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon, Cory Joseph, Richaun Holmes
Relevant Departures: Willie Cauley-Stein
- The Kings have perhaps the league’s quickest player in De’Aaron Fox and finally figured out that they were at their best when he was putting defenses on their heels all night long. The Zach Randolph stuff feels like a million years ago.
- Replacing Willie Cauley-Stein with Dewayne Dedmon will slow things down a bit -- Dedmon is coming from a top-ranked Hawks squad but was one of their slowest players. Richaun Holmes is probably a better stylistic fit.
- It’s expected that the Kings will dial back on Nemanja Bjelica’s minutes to make some more time for Harry Giles -- Giles was the faster player with the larger on/off impact last season.
- That also creates more playing time for Marvin Bagley, obviously, who was one of the Kings’ few players that saw the team speed up when they left the floor.
- That said, the Fox-Bagley duo led all two-man lineups (minimum 500 minutes) in pace at 107.52.
- The top four of those duos all contain Fox, while the next three contain Buddy Hield. They lift just about everyone.
- The re-signing of Harrison Barnes and the addition of Trevor Ariza make it harder to see Bogdan Bogdanovic getting substantial time.
- Bogdanovic was Sacramento’s biggest pace drag last season at 103.07 on and 106.71 off.
- Barnes was a pace booster for the Kings while Ariza was just about neutral for Washington.
Verdict: Just about everyone on the Kings was able to keep up with Fox and Hield -- even the slowpokes -- and if Luke Walton was able to push a mishmash Lakers roster up the pace rankings, we’re interested to see what he does with a roster that’s practically built for track meets. The Kings might lead the league in pace next season.
San Antonio Spurs
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 98.89 (22)
Coach: Gregg Popovich
Relevant Arrivals: DeMarre Carroll, Trey Lyles
Relevant Departures: Davis Bertans
- The Spurs didn’t do a ton this summer and will always play their way, regardless of larger trends. That means mid-range work and strong defense, even if it prevents the team from getting out and running.
- The notable wrinkle this year is the return of Dejounte Murray and how he’ll split time with Derrick White.
- In 2017-18, the Spurs played at a 97.27 pace with Murray and 96.88 without him in a season where they ranked 28th in pace.
- Last season, they were at 98.75 with White on the court and 101.14 with him on the bench.
- Eliminating Pau Gasol minutes and giving them all to Jakob Poeltl should help out a little bit.
- The Spurs played the slowest with their five most important players on the court last season: DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Bryn Forbes, Rudy Gay and White.
- Patty Mills sped the game up but is looking at fewer minutes with White and Murray both healthy.
Verdict: The Spurs are increasing their pace as the entire league gets faster but they’re not doing so at a rate that makes a difference in terms of rankings. San Antonio should be near the bottom of the stack again next year, not that they’ll care.
Toronto Raptors
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 100.52 (15)
Coach: Nick Nurse
Relevant Arrivals: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Stanley Johnson, Matt Thomas, Terence Davis
Relevant Departures: Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
- The Raptors had to toggle between two offensive settings last season: watching Kawhi Leonard dominate everyone and generating good looks with sharp ball movement.
- Expect them to skew more towards the latter since the former is impossible, though the acquisition of Marc Gasol helped bridge the gap quite a bit.
- Toronto’s surefire starting group of Kyle Lowry-Pascal Siakam-Gasol played to a pace of 101.10 in 293 minutes.
- They were slightly slower with Serge Ibaka in place of Gasol at 100.70.
- Potential new starters OG Anunoby (103.04) and Norman Powell (103.48) were among the fastest Raptors regulars and have strong on/off impacts.
- Potential new starter Fred VanVleet, on the other hand, owned the slowest pace at 99.90. Much of that had to do with Toronto’s lack of shot-makers in the second unit, however, and a Lowry-FVV backcourt came out with a 101.32 pace.
- The dynamics surrounding Lowry’s contract situation are worth watching here, as things could slow down if VanVleet ends up taking larger chunks of the PG minutes over time.
Verdict: The Raptors may still be a little bit slower than you’d expect as Siakam sorts out his go-to scoring game, but removing Leonard from the equation should open up opportunities for the team’s faster players to impact the game. The Raptors should mount a tiny climb up the rankings.
Utah Jazz
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 100.84 (14)
Coach: Quin Snyder
Relevant Arrivals: Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jeff Green, Emmanuel Mudiay, Ed Davis
Relevant Departures: Ricky Rubio, Derrick Favors, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver
- Since Snyder took over the Jazz have ranked 30th, 30th, 30th, 25th and 14th in pace.
- Despite the timelines matching up, the Jazz have actually played faster with Donovan Mitchell on the bench over the last two seasons.
- Jae Crowder of all people has been one of the bigger positive pace impacts.
- He figures to be replaced by some committee of Jeff Green and Royce O’Neale, who both slowed their teams down last season.
- Bojan Bogdanovic also had a negative effect on pace last season.
- The Grizzlies played ever so slightly faster with Mike Conley off the floor last year, though we’re willing to count a lot of that as a result of silly season. Conley’s disparity was less than Ricky Rubio’s.
- The two-man group of Mitchell and Rudy Gobert produced a pace of 101.65 last season.
Verdict: The Jazz lean on their defense, so it makes sense that they’ve been able to grind things to a halt up until last season. Considering the personnel changes they’ve made and what most of the rest of the league has done, we’d expect Utah to slide back towards the bottom of the pace rankings.
Washington Wizards
Last Season’s Pace (Rank): 102.24 (9)
Coach: Scott Brooks
Relevant Arrivals: Isaiah Thomas, Ish Smith, Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans, Mo Wagner, C.J. Miles
Relevant Departures: Tomas Satoransky, Bobby Portis, Trevor Ariza, Jabari Parker, Jeff Green, Dwight Howard
- The Wizards have done a ton of overhaul this summer and will be building around Bradley Beal.
- Thomas Bryant is really the only other returning player who looks like a potential building block, and a Beal-Bryant combo delivered a pace of 103.16 in 1,207 minutes last year.
- Washington is really building from the ground up and a lot will be determined by their point guards.
- Despite his waterbug style, the Pistons actually played faster when Ish Smith was off the floor last year.
- Isaiah Thomas’ campaign was pretty much a wash, though he’s historically been someone who pushes the tempo.
- After John Wall’s injury, the Wizards ranked 11th in pace (101.88) as opposed to 7th (102.71) before.
Verdict: The Wizards have cut some slower players, but they’ve also cut some of their faster guys too. This doesn’t look like a roster that really wants to open things up and we’d bet on them sliding in the rankings a bit in a full year without Wall.
Post a comment