2021 Draft Guide: Sleepers
Sleepers are basically everyone’s favorite draft season topic. It’s very hard to totally win or lose a draft with one of your first couple picks (barring catastrophe) but digging deep and hitting on some late picks can have a massive marginal benefit. That late zone is where the true knowledge gaps make themselves known. Not everyone gets a chance to pick the best players in the league, but real sleepers are sitting there for the taking. Picking the right ones — which is to say, the ones that your leaguemates aren’t paying attention to — can put a team over the top, and way, way over the top in some cases.
We’ve been floating above .500 in our sleeper calls over the last few seasons, with victories ranging from the modest profits (Maxi Kleber, Kenrich Williams) to the game-changers (Davis Bertans, Norman Powell, Richaun Holmes). Let’s see what we can hit this year.
Standard Leagues
Jordan Poole, G, Golden State Warriors
Poole nearly played his way off this list after going supernova in the preseason with averages of 21.8 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 3.2 3-pointers in just 22.7 mpg during the exhibition slate, shooting a cool .506 from the field. His play basically allowed the Warriors to keep a roster spot open to begin the year as they waived a lot of their extra backcourt depth: Avery Bradley, Mychal Mulder and Gary Payton II. Poole will get first crack at starting for the injured Klay Thompson and will try his best to carve out as large a role for the whole year, not just the first few months when Thompson is out/limited.
While Poole shouldn’t be expected to keep up his preseason pace, we now have a hint at his upside and that alone makes him worth a late-round pick given his secure role for the near-term future. He’ll be the second or third scoring option for the Warriors on most nights and can put up points and threes in volumes that aren’t usually found that deep into 12-team drafts.
Wendell Carter Jr., F/C, Orlando Magic
Carter has teased fantasy managers repeatedly, dating all the way back to his rookie season with the Bulls. Expected to be a modern, versatile center who can make plays and step out of the paint, injuries and a seeming lack of confidence from the organization led to lots of stops and starts. The Bulls never really committed to him for one reason or another (and it’s not a one-way street here, to be clear), and the team’s shift to a win-now window last season led to his trade to the Magic. Orlando has no competitive aspirations in the near future and can afford to let a talented player like Carter play through the speed bumps that young bigs encounter.
After getting traded to the Magic last season, Carter threatened middle-round value for stretches before ultimately missing a few games due to injury at the end of the year. He finished as a top-130 player with Orlando, which belies how good he was at times. That also happened for a team that was missing plenty of talent and simply playing out the string with a collection of players that wasn’t exactly cohesive. The setup will be much more conducive to success now, and it’s encouraging that the Magic have experimented with Carter playing next to Mo Bamba in the preseason. The role’s going to be steady and there’s top-100 potential.
Khem Birch, C, Toronto Raptors
Carter’s acquisition helped push the Magic to waive Khem Birch, who found new life in Toronto… err, Tampa. A disturbing lack of capable centers was one of the main factors in the Raptors’ disappointing year, but Birch’s arrival was a breath of fresh air. He was just outside the top-100 after joining the Raptors and sports a fairly sturdy stat set. Birch isn’t an offensive priority but the shots he does get will be easy to make and he can haul in enough rebounds and blocks on strong percentages to fly under the radar. That the team’s underlying numbers were fairly strong with Birch at center is also a notch in his belt. Guys who make the team better tend to find their way onto the court.
A preseason bout with COVID unfortunately opened the door for Precious Achiuwa to steal some (and perhaps a lot) of Birch’s Thunder. Achiuwa is an equally viable late-round flier candidate, but we’re betting on Birch’s stability outweighing Achiuwa’s more versatile game in terms of the playing time battle. This may depend on how Toronto’s season goes; Birch likely gets the edge if the Raptors are competing, while Achiuwa will tilt the scales significantly if they’re destined for the lottery again.
Daniel Theis, F/C, Houston Rockets
Theis is a solid player for a modern frontcourt and lands on a Houston roster that needs some steady hands and basketball IQ. The German can deliver both of those without taking up too much space from the Rockets’ development goals, and give Stephen Silas a dependable player to lean on when Christian Wood or Alperen Sengun are struggling with some of the finer points of the game. Theis isn’t the sort of player to blow you away but he can do a little bit of everything, and it’s that versatility that gives him a solid on-court role. From there the stats should follow. Even if Sengun has a good shot at overtaking Theis by the end of the year, the Rockets are unlikely to cut him out of the picture entirely and can use his skills with a variety of different lineup groups.
As a backup to Nikola Vucevic and Thad Young last year (while splitting time with Lauri Markkanen), Theis managed top-180 value as a member of the Bulls. He should be far more prominent than that this season, putting him on the board as a quiet but effective late-round choice for some rebounds, steals, blocks, threes and solid percentages.
Otto Porter, F, Golden State Warriors
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Porter at full strength (or perhaps, fully engaged). Injuries have taken a heavy toll on the former fantasy maven, as OP used to be an always-overlooked top-50 guy thanks to a do-it-all game. Fresh off a big contract and two down campaigns, Porter heads to Golden State, where he may find that less is more. The Warriors will not need Porter to be a 3-and-D dynamo to paper over the cracks of the starting lineup like he was in Washington, or even briefly in Chicago. They simply need him to do his thing: defend hard across a couple positions and hit his open corner threes. The preseason was particularly solid for Porter, and a streamlined role (with fewer minutes leading to better health) could get him back in the top-150 for fantasy purposes. Andrew Wiggins’ decision to finally, mercifully get vaccinated erases a lot of the upside here but Porter has a solid stat set and can focus on his strengths for a team that’s trying to win.
Deep Leagues
Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Houston Rockets
Martin was supposed to be a long-term project for the Rockets after going prep-to-pro and getting selected deep in the second round of the draft, but Houston’s season unraveled quickly and a wave of injuries forced him into minutes. After the trade deadline Martin was a top-135 player in 26.9 mpg, providing 2.6 combined cash counters a night with .520 shooting and double-double upside. The Rockets enter the year with a little more direction than last (you’ll remember that the roster was essentially blown to bits shortly before opening night), and some added depth will hurt Martin’s case for immediate minutes, but he can rack up numbers in a hurry and youth should still be in fashion. If not right away, then surely before season’s end. KMJ never topped 18 minutes in the four preseason games but still averaged 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks a night. There’s some solid upside at the back of 16-team leagues.
Cameron Johnson, F, Phoenix Suns
Johnson doesn’t have the same ceiling as Martin but he’s coming off a very strong playoff run and has an assured role in the Phoenix rotation. The Suns’ wing versatility supports their core in an elite fashion and Johnson is a big part of that even if he doesn’t get the pub that Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder do. Now that the Suns have proof of concept with this roster, expect them to experiment a little bit more during the regular season and try to keep the big guns healthy all year. That’s a good recipe for a young(ish) player on the rise, and there’s extra bounce-back potential baked in because Johnson had a poor 3-point effort last year. After going .390 as a rookie, he was down at .349 last season. That should be coming back up considering Johnson’s NCAA reputation, and will be enough to put him snugly inside the top-200. Draft him accordingly, but also know that Johnson threatening the top-150 wouldn’t be a major surprise.
Justise Winslow, F/G, LA Clippers
Can Winslow get his career back on track? He won’t come in with the same expectations he’s carried previously, but the setup he’s found with the Clippers is a nice fit on paper. Winslow is a versatile, switchable forward that should slot in nicely with the likes of Marcus Morris, Serge Ibaka, Terance Mann and Nicolas Batum. Winslow’s greatest fantasy output came when he was tasked with traditional PG duties back in Miami. The Clippers’ current PG depth chart features score-first Reggie Jackson and the defensive-minded Eric Bledsoe. After being stuck in a deep Memphis rotation, Winslow simply has to get on the court to show what he can do. It certainly helps that Kawhi Leonard will miss much of the year. The player’s skill set and the team’s needs line up nicely here, so Winslow might be in for an under-the-radar surprise season. He’s not a must-draft guy in 16-team formats but he’s a fun flier in case you wind up with a de facto point guard.
Max Strus, G, Miami Heat
The Heat are a bit of a factory when it comes to turning unheralded wings into NBA contributors. Strus has been unable to do much since recovering from a torn ACL a couple years back but has generated lots of buzz in Heat land this offseason, with the preseason play to back it up. He’s been a bit in between; Strus does play when the Heat run out a more typical rotation, slotting in as the ninth man, but is also left to log big minutes when the regulars are resting. However the chips fall, Strus has been able to make the most of his opportunity. Kyle Lowry’s in town but the Heat still consolidated their rotation by dumping Goran Dragic and Kendrick Nunn, which leaves a spot open. This is a player that almost nobody will be familiar with but the tape looks good and he should get regular minutes. There’s upside in points and threes, and maybe a little more, too.
Tony Bradley, C, Chicago Bulls
Bradley has always been an impressive per-minute player but has had a hard time getting on the court. He began his career behind Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors in Utah and spent last season behind Joel Embiid and Dwight Howard in Philadelphia, only for a mid-season move to Oklahoma City to open things up a bit for him. In 22 games with the Thunder, Bradley averaged 8.7 points, 6.1 rebounds and 0.8 blocks in a mere 18.0 mpg while shooting .656 from the field. Now in Chicago, Bradley is once again behind an All-Star in Nikola Vucevic, but his competition for the backup job is just Alize Johnson. The Bulls don’t have any natural small-ball centers and he’s shown enough to earn a spot as a rotation player. The stat set offers a quick ramp to deep-league value, and there’s added benefit to anyone who goes with Vucevic in round two.
Deep Cut Special
John Konchar, G, Memphis Grizzlies
Konchar has a track record of turning his minutes into plenty of stats, all over the box score, at every level. It was the same story in college and the same story in the G League. Per-36 minutes, last season Konchar averaged 11.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.9 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.3 3-pointers on .500 shooting. In terms of per-36 rankings, Konchar finished 93rd. Obviously he won’t play that much, to put it in more practical terms, last season Konchar finished 294th in the 9-cat rankings. Among the top-300, he played the second-fewest minutes per night (Goga Bitadze had the fewest at 12.7 per).
If he can play more this year there’s lots of potential for a guy with a history as a stat magnet. With Grayson Allen out of the way and Taylor Jenkins’ apparent obsession with playing everyone but De’Anthony Melton, Konchar has a chance at a full-time rotation gig. From there the numbers will do the talking, but to start things out he’s going to sneak up on lots of fantasy managers.
We would’ve made room for Jordan Nwora in this spot but alas, Grayson Allen is out here wrecking someone else’s fantasy appeal.
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