Weekly Report: Ebbs and Flows
We’re deep enough into the season where multi-week trends feel like the real deal. You can’t explain things away as a hot start anymore; someone hitting a new level a couple weeks into the year just looks like real development. That’s not always true, however, and figuring out what’s real and what’s just a deferred hot start can make or break you, especially on waivers. Holding onto someone who ends up fizzling out could cost you a guy who takes over a role that leads to consistent value for a month at a time, or someone who ends up being reliable all year long.
Of course, adding someone who looks like one of those For Real contributors only to watch them slump means you could be on the other end of that — you don’t want to be the one cutting loose someone who ends up being a long-term value after a couple bad weeks.
Every decision is about risk vs. reward. It’s what makes players like Aleksej Pokusevski so intriguing. After a run of legitimate top-30 value, Poku is back in the gutter, sitting outside the top-200 last week with minutes that can evaporate in a flash. He’s an extreme example, to be clear, given how quickly the Thunder toss their rotation around like they’re playing Boggle, but how long is he worth waiting for? How many weeks of middle-round-or-better numbers will it take to make up for a month of unplayable value? Much of that will depend on where your team is at in the standings, as that will dictate how much cushion you have to be patient with. Teams looking up from the bottom might have to just trade out hot hands for hot hands, while those atop the leaderboards might be able to deal with a few bad weeks.
Poku is an easy example because of the highs and lows, and we’ve already seen both, but the discussion isn’t limited to him. What about Caleb Martin? Mo Bamba? Dyson Daniels? Seth Curry?
As far as figuring out who may be for real, to a certain extent you’re going to have to get lucky. Some extra research can go a long way towards stacking the odds, though. The big thing would obviously be to watch the games. You’ll never get a better sense for how a player is doing, or how the team is using them, or if there’s something totally off the rails going on. If that’s not possible — which is completely fair! — some active box score tracking will help. Learning a team’s substitution patterns will clue you into who someone shares the court with, as well as what parts of the game a coach thinks they’re fit for. If that’s not possible — also completely fair! — there’s plenty of cool statistical searches you can run, with many of them available on the NBA’s own website. Want to know why someone’s efficiency is way off? Look at the types of shots they’re getting, or where the hot and cold spots on the floor are. That may be the simplest way of sussing out who is due for a quick correction.
There are going to be tons of ebbs and flows throughout the season, and whichever managers do the best job of navigating them are likely to emerge victorious.
Good Surprise
Joe Harris with a wild swing, finishing at No. 288 the previous week and leading off the Bad Surprises, only to bounce back with 15.3 points, 1.3 steals and 3.5 triples on .538 shooting to finish at No. 36. Nothing there looks out of whack given what we’ve seen from Harris previously, so it feels like a good time to pick him up. It’s worth seeing how things unfold, though the imminent return of Ben Simmons is another complicating factor.
We’ll break our rules about sample size a little bit to call out Steven Adams, who finished at No. 21 thanks to a bizarro week where he shot .368 from the field and .750 at the line. Of course, when you average 14 rebounds and four defensive stats per night, those other weaknesses fade a bit. The other wrinkle from last week’s like? Fantasy GMs will probably be ecstatic if Adams can limit himself to two free throw attempts per game. Overcoming 3-for-8 shooting over a whole week is a lot easier to work with than one of his signature 4-for-11 nights.
Bad Surprise
Karl-Anthony Towns and Bones Hyland were both way down on the list, though KAT got hurt and Hyland only played in two games, so we won’t focus too much on that.
The worst player that was basically in every starting lineup last week was Keldon Johnson, who has had all the worst impulses of his game seep to the fore of late. He scored 20.3 points per game to go with 6.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.0 triples, but shot .338 from the field and .600 at the line with a total of one steal and no blocks in three contests. He’s got to step it back up again; even if the free throws rebound, he’s still not close to the top-150 despite some solid popcorn stats. Johnson has the role and talent to turn it around but these blips are frustrating.
No Surprise
Zion Williamson is here, with a caveat: he shot .784 at the line with 2.0 steals and 1.8 blocks per game. That made him the No. 6 ranked player last week. It’s a reminder of what the ceiling here actually is, and even if he can just deliver in one of those three areas with regularity he’ll be a top-20 threat. He’s a special player.
Kyle Anderson finished at No. 75 in his three games. He’s going to be in cruise control while Karl-Anthony Towns is out.
30 Thoughts
Atlanta: Nate McMillan is so getting fired. That Trae Young has enough sway to likely get two coaches fired, however, might be the bigger issue. He’s great but the Hawks might want to avoid that dynamic considering their general lack of team success.
Brooklyn: It seems like only one of Joe Harris and Seth Curry can be productive at one time. That’s going to be highly annoying; you can bet that whoever you add will be the one that stinks for five games.
Boston: It’s stashin’ time for Robert Williams. Don’t let things get out of control, though — he’s not going to play back-to-backs and it’ll be a while before he gets to play 30 minutes a night. The end result means you take your lumps along the way but there could also be an early buy-low window if he’s more frustrating than expected.
Charlotte: PJ Washington has given us some really odd individual games this season but he’s inching up the rankings and now sits just outside the top-100. The Hornets’ season is basically done before it could even get off the ground but at least Washington is trending in the right direction.
Chicago: It’s crazy to see how impactful Lonzo Ball was for the Bulls. It’s a team that’s now sniping back and forth with the coach and a bunch of high-priced players who are far more one-way than well-rounded, without someone like Ball to serve as the connective tissue and defensive conscience. It’s a group that can’t realistically be expected to compete for anything meaningful as currently constructed and if management is willing to pull the plug on their own experiment, we could see lots of the younger guys hit the fantasy radar.
Cleveland: Evan Mobley got rolling as a scorer when Jarrett Allen was out with his back contusion. It’s not a shock necessarily, but Allen isn’t one of those guys that demands a ton of shots — it’s really just that the Cavs guards would be insane not to spam lobs when they’re available. As for Mobley, he really will need to keep the scoring up in order to come close to his ADP, but it doesn’t look great.
Dallas: Dorian Finney-Smith disappeared last week as his shots just aren’t falling. I’m still invested because that’s the only aspect of his game that’s off. Maybe I’m a fool.
Denver: Bruce Brown is as automatic as it gets in a starting role. He’s also a player that you’ll want to hold even after Michael Porter Jr. gets back from injury, as he’s proven himself to be indispensable to the Nuggets. Even as a sixth man, Brown’s playing too well not to be a fantasy value.
Detroit: While this season is unlikely to result in 12-team fantasy value for Jaden Ivey, it’s going to be a great bit of experience for him. The worry is that there will be another adjustment period whenever Cade Cunningham gets back, be that later this year or next season. We’ve seen counting-stat focused guards make big leaps in efficiency from year one to year two and hopefully that’s the case here.
Golden State: James Wiseman did well in the G League — as he should — and though expectations for fantasy need to be as low as can be, one wonders if that stint can help build his confidence up again. The Warriors aren’t playing so unassailably well that the rotation is some sort of uncrackable box.
Houston: Really good work from Kenyon Martin Jr. this season, who has handled his positional switch quite well. He’s someone to keep close tabs on because the Rockets still stink and he’s young enough to help out.
Indiana: Jalen Smith was a top-100 guy in under 20 mpg last week, and has climbed back inside the top-150 on the full season. It’s frustrating but you have to keep holding on because the Pacers will trade Myles Turner eventually.
LA Clippers: This roster doesn’t even feel worth discussing when the stars are out because everything’s just in a big holding pattern. Deep-league GMs could find some interesting names (hello, Moussa Diabate) but you can’t trust anyone beyond the guys you expect to be top-100 plays.
Los Angeles Lakers: It’s wild how fast Kendrick Nunn has gone from potential difference-maker in the backcourt to basically being out of the rotation. Lonnie Walker is running away with this “competition” on the wing and should be rostered everywhere.
Memphis: David Roddy is cool. We need more big dudes who do little-dude things, and not in the Aleksej Pokusevski way.
Miami: The Heat’s ongoing injury report situation is more annoying than anything, but it is pretty funny that in the midst of listing half the roster as questionable they were able to slip Victor Oladipo’s season debut in there after not really talking about him all year. He’s not an add in standard leagues but you can put him on your watch list.
Milwaukee: Jevon Carter has been an excellent role player for the Bucks so far and it looks like he’s inherited the role of fill-in starter when anyone besides Brook Lopez goes out of the lineup. He’s also playing as good as he ever has, but even so it’s a little surprising that he’s bounced around so much in the league.
Minnesota: Jaylen Nowell’s heating up again and is an under-the-radar fantasy option that can help everyone, regardless of league depth, with points and triples.
New Orleans: Jose Alvarado is awesome and it was only a matter of time before the Pels discovered that he needs to play a ton. Loved him as a late-round draft target and he has very much arrived.
New York: The Cam Reddish saga is insane; now the Knicks are shopping him? It’s rare that you can clearly connect the dots of someone’s depreciating value but we’re going to be able to do just that after New York acquired him last season.
Oklahoma City: Jermiah Robinson-Earl was No. 75 last week and is still the most trustworthy of the non-star players on this roster.
Orlando: Paolo Banchero finished at No. 285 last week despite averaging 18.8 points on .482 from the field. He badly needs to round out the rest of his stat set, but if you’ve got him you can always feel comfortable about selling high given the way that points get overvalued.
Philadelphia: I’m good with dropping Shake Milton now that James Harden is back from his injury. There might be a few games left of late-round value but I’d rather hunt out clear short-term wins or a longer-term prospect.
Phoenix: Dario Saric getting promoted is fun, if not particularly meaningful in fantasy leagues. We’re a long way away from when Saric was a coveted fantasy option with the Sixers, but you can still see the outline of that fun statistical profile when he’s playing real minutes.
Portland: A little appreciation for Josh Hart, who
just coasts along as a middle-round guy. He’s a terrific player and the
perfect addition to any fantasy roster.
Sacramento: The Kings are frying right now and they’re
getting production from all over the roster, with an elite offense
humming along even with Domantas Sabonis not really dazzling as a
scorer. That’s a good sign for them; primarily because Sabonis doesn’t
have to be that kind of presence for the team to score, but also because
we’ve seen what the limitations on a team are when Sabonis is propping
everything up.
San Antonio: Charles Bassey very much has the looks of a guy who can be a game-changer in the second half of the season. File that away for later.
Toronto: The Raptors badly missed Pascal Siakam and he hit the ground running in return from injury. He’s at an All-NBA level again and fantasy GMs who took him in the third round might end up with value out of that pick.
Utah: Walker Kessler looks like a guy who should be added in a lot more leagues. He’s going to see some fluctuations in his playing time but those blocks are impossible to overlook.
Washington: Corey Kispert appears to have pulled ahead of Deni Avdija for the time being, but fantasy GMs can target either for specific help while Bradley Beal is out. It’s nice when you have two viable options that fill different niches. It certainly makes you feel less bad if things don’t work out.
Deep League Darts
How’d we do last week? For 16-teamers, we endorsed Quentin Grimes, who ended up at No. 128. It was our last chance for easy money there with the Knicks doing away with Cam Reddish. For 18-teamers, we called out Furkan Korkmaz, who, like Danuel House before him, flopped. He finished at No. 261 and went cold from the field so you didn’t even get good 3-pointers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker wasn’t able to benefit from Mike Conley’s absence, finishing outside the top-300 in under 11 minutes a night. Whoops.
As for this week…
Donte DiVincenzo appears to be trending upward, and the Warriors aren’t really in a position where they can turn down someone who’s contributing. It took a while but DiVincenzo is finally delivering in the box score, and he has top-200 upside in his role.
Managers in 18-team formats can think of Isaiah Roby as a very sneaky late-round option while Jakob Poeltl is out. Veteran fantasy GMs are waiting for the second-half outburst, but with the state of the depth chart there might be some reasonable numbers here.
The Raptors have reshuffled their starting five again and keep coming back to Christian Koloko, so maybe managers in 20-team leagues should too. He’s not someone to add if you need to keep your FT% pristine but Koloko is a reliable option for rebounds and blocks, and while his playing time could be volatile you at least know he’ll be out there to start the games.
We’re going to stick with the Hornets again this week after picking Kai Jones in our last edition. Bryce McGowens is getting a crack at minutes on a thin wing rotation and has looked better than James Bouknight. 30-team managers, think about it.
Final Thoughts
Your intrepid writer will be out of town next week so we’ll skip the Weekly Report. Just know that the last time I took a mid-season trip and was fully away from the control center, a Lyft driver broke the Blake Griffin-to-Detroit trade to me on the way out of the airport. Looking forward to talking about the next crazy deal when I get back.
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