The Bucks entered the third year of the Jason Kidd era looking to get back into the postseason after a year on the sidelines. Milwaukee oscillated between looking like the Next Big Thing and lottery fodder but got everything together at the right time and settled as the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. Though they fell in the first round of the playoffs, Bucks fans saw a litany of great things and can safely boast that they hold the game’s next megastar. Hoop-Ball’s Post-Mortem takes a look at what this past season had in store for Milwaukee.

Overview

The Bucks made the postseason in the first year of Jason Kidd’s tenure but took a step back in 2015-16 when they had some trouble integrating free agent acquisition Greg Monroe. They spent the offseason retooling most of their guard rotation, waving goodbye to Michael Carter-Williams, Greivis Vasquez, Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo and signing Matthew Dellavedova to a four year, $38 million deal and trading for Tony Snell. The Bucks also drafted guard Malcolm Brogdon out of Virginia in the second round after taking Thon Maker in round one. Milwaukee also added Mirza Teletovic in free agency in hopes of spacing out the attack on a roster filled with many subpar 3-point shooters.

The team was dealt a severe blow when Khris Middleton went down with a torn hamstring in late October. Down one of their ascending two way stars and their most reliable 3-point shooter, the Bucks would have to find ways to score with an imperfect, though extremely athletic, roster. Luckily Giannis Antetokounmpo took the league by storm, delivering highlights on a nightly basis and earning a well-deserved All Star selection. Jabari Parker flashed an improved jumper while Brogdon emerged as a quality playmaker and a Rookie of the Year contender in a wide open field. Greg Monroe played well in a sixth man role.

Still, the Bucks struggled and found themselves at 22-28 through 50 games thanks to a 2-10 run that put a damper on their playoff hopes. They received a gift from the gods as Middleton, who some expected to miss the entire season, returned in early February and gave the Bucks a shot in the arm. Unfortunately, the awful injury luck continued as Parker tore his left ACL for the second time in three years just one game after Middleton returned. Now without their second leading scorer and rebounder, Milwaukee had to bear down for the closing stretch.

They found a bit of magic by plugging Maker into the starting five, and despite his flaws the raw rookie looked like more of a contributor than a long-term project. The Bucks pulled off an 11-4 month of March and locked themselves into a playoff spot, where they would face off with the Toronto Raptors in the first round.

Milwaukee stole Game 1 on the road and put a whooping on the Raptors in Game 3 before Toronto rallied to close out the series in six games. While it was a disappointing end, the Bucks nearly overcame a 25-point deficit to force a seventh game and have plenty to be proud of. Antetokounmpo is officially A Problem for opponents, regardless of who he’s matched up against. The team’s insane length enables a swarming trapping defense that will only get better as the players grow older and smarter together. The deer shall be feared again before too long.

Coaching

Jason Kidd has earned himself a reputation in the fantasy community thanks to his penchant for changing rotations on an occasionally illogical whim. He had the yo yo going this year with guys like Thon Maker and John Henson but wound up pushing a handful of correct buttons, Greg Monroe off the bench chief among them. The Bucks don’t have a ton of talent off the bench so it’s painfully obvious when Kidd’s bench groups flounder, perhaps removing some temptation to screw around more. He also did well to use Maker’s length and athleticism to turn his team into a tenacious, spindly defensive group when Parker went down. It wasn’t a perfect job but there was plenty to like with a few gutsy moves.

As mentioned, the Bucks lacked outside shooting threats without Middleton. Though Tony Snell, Brogdon and Jason Terry all hit above 40 percent from deep the team was 24th with just 23.7 triples attempted per game. Milwaukee feasted in the paint, leading the league with 46.9 percent of their total points coming on those shots. With a guy like Giannis able to get to the rack in one dribble, it’s hardly a surprise that the Bucks got so many points from close to the hoop. They finished just 26th in pace, so it takes a lot of two point attempts to make up for ranking 19th in defensive rating. Simple math means the Bucks will have trouble outscoring their opponents, but there’s positive signs on the other end of the floor.

Defensively, it was obvious (especially in the postseason) that Milwaukee has the tools to trot out a highly effective defensive group. Their length and quickness enables hyper-aggression, but it’s often very tough for teammates to help, rotate and recover unless everyone is on the same page for the entire possession. It’s an issue for a young squad who had to work through several lineup iterations but it should prove fruitful going forward. They also had trouble on the glass, ranking 26th in defensive rebound percentage.

On the positive side, the Bucks were tied for second with 16.7 percent of their points coming off of turnovers. Antetokounmpo is a nightmare with a head of steam so it’s unsurprising to see them score against defenses that don’t always have a chance to set. The team tied for fifth with a 15.1 opponent turnover percentage. The lanky Bucks should only continue to improve on that end of the floor.

Kidd has some control over personnel decisions, so we’ll see how things play out going forward. That sort of stuff tends to wear thin quickly without success, so the expectation going forward will be continued playoff appearances. With a team on the rise it’s unlikely that Kidd will find himself on the hot seat barring an epic collapse.

The Players

Giannis Antetokounmpo

ADP: 13 / 10 (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 4/4 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 6/5 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 80

Antetokounmpo was getting plenty of hype headed into draft season only to surpass everyone’s expectations. He established career highs in literally every category and missed only two games on his way to a phenomenal year. The Greek Freak’s physical gifts are unparalleled around the league and there are games where he straight up steals wins single-handedly. It takes one dribble for him to go from the top of the arc to the rim and he’s an absolute monster in transition. Teams’ best shot at defending him is forcing him to take jumpers, but at just 22-years-old he’s got plenty of time to work on that. A 3-point shot is the only thing preventing Antetokounmpo from being totally unguardable, and you can be sure that’s on the way.

On defense, his tentacle arms make him a sheer terror for anyone. He’s both strong and long enough to defend across three positions with ease and can frustrate the other two without much trouble. You can count on one hand the one-on-one matchups that he might not be able to handle, and even then betting against him is a dangerous game. Milwaukee’s defensive scheme thrives on creating chaos, and Antetokounmpo can easily turn wayward passes into forceful jams in three dribbles or less. It’s a match made in heaven, and as the roster is constructed around his strengths it should only grow more difficult for opponents to work around him.

He played 35.6 minutes per game and dropped 22.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.9 blocks and 0.6 threes on average. He shot .521 from the field (up from .506), .272 from deep (up from .257) and .770 from the line (up from .724) on 7.7 attempts per game while becoming the first player in NBA history to finish top-20 in the five major statistical categories. Given that, it’s no surprise that Giannis led the Bucks in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks and finished fourth in the league in minutes played while staying consistently dominant from start to finish. He shot over 50 percent from the floor in every month except April and while he averaged 2.9 turnovers per game, that’s a small price to pay for literally everything else.

The sky is the limit here and whoever happens to own him when he figures out the longball is almost a lock to win their league. If you want any part of Antetokounmpo for the next decade or so it’s going to take a high first round pick. He’ll be in the conversation for first overall in fantasy drafts and it’s hard to argue that he isn’t deserving.

Jabari Parker

ADP: 70 / 64 (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 127/123 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 51/54 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 51

Parker was in the midst of an impressive season before a torn left ACL put him on the shelf. He was posting a career best 20.1 points per game on 49 percent shooting including an impressive 36.5 percent from deep on 3.5 attempts per game. It’s an area that Parker had been asked to work on and he certainly delivered, notching 1.3 triples per game after averaging just 0.1 per game on .255 shooting in his first two seasons. He could step out and hit threes, attack the rack at will or use his agility and speed to make strong cuts. Parker was also posting career highs with 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.0 steals, thriving as the 1B to Antetokounmpo’s 1A.

It was a coming out party for the former Blue Devil and it looked like Parker was really putting everything together with 2014-15’s ACL tear firmly in the past until tragedy struck. This marks the second time in three years that his left ACL has been torn and it’s going to cast an ominous cloud over his future.

It remains to be seen how this latest injury will affect his athleticism, but that’s a key component to Parker’s game. He owned the highest pace on the Bucks and had plenty of explosive attacks on the rim. If he comes back totally healthy and brings the same aggressive mentality on his cuts to the bucket it’ll be a huge development for Milwaukee. Unfortunately, Parker isn’t expected to return until the All Star break at the earliest so he doesn’t make much sense as a single-season pick unless you’re willing to stash him for the long haul.

Greg Monroe

ADP: 64 / 75 (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 65/66 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 93/97 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 81

2016-17 marked the first year of Monroe’s seven year career in which he didn’t make a single start. Though the sheer lack of minutes put a cap on his potential, the move worked out quite well for Moose. He actually saw an uptick in usage this year to 24.2 percent after he led the team with just 23.4 a season prior. Monroe made strides as a defender and passer, working well within the team even though a move to the bench probably wasn’t great for the ego. He also set a six-year high with a .533 field goal percentage and his free throw mark of .741 is no small feat considering he’s only .704 over his entire career. Of course, most players draft Monroe for his contributions in the steals category and he produced 1.1 swipes per contest in only 22.5 minutes.

It’s cold comfort for fantasy owners, but Monroe actually posted nearly identical per-36 minutes stats over the past two seasons in scoring and rebounding. Really the only thing keeping him from reaching the numbers that owners have grown accustomed to is playing time. While that might never get back up into the high twenties under Kidd or in Milwaukee, Monroe played well despite constant trade rumors and adjusted nicely to a new role. He should be a safe bet for these types of numbers next year as a pillar of the Bucks’ second units. Draft him accordingly.

Khris Middleton

ADP: 140 / 66 (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 253/252 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 50/63 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 29

Middleton suffered a torn hamstring right before the start of the season but made an ahead-of-schedule return, getting back into action in February as his standard, terrific two-way self. In his limited season he posted a sterling plus-5.7 net rating, a full point better than Milwaukee’s second best in the category (Jason Terry) and over four points better than the next-best full time starter (Antetokounmpo).

He was being drafted in the middle rounds but even that left plenty of room for fantasy profit. Considering that Middleton had played in 82, 79 and 79 games prior to this poorly-timed injury he seems like a good bet to play nearly every game, assuming his hamstring is back to 100 percent. A full season of 14.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.6 triples on .450 from the field would be fantasy gold, and his counting stats should rise considering 30.7 minutes this year pale in comparison to the 36.1 he averaged in 2015-16. Middleton also saw a seven percentage point increase in his frequency of buckets off assists this year and he should thrive as secondary or tertiary scorer and playmaker. His .433 3-point shooting might be due for some regression but unless he gets hurt again there’s no reason to fear taking Middleton in the middle rounds.

Malcolm Brogdon

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 89/90 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 106/114 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 75

Milwaukee found themselves a gem in Malcolm Brogdon, who showed plenty of poise and playmaking ability as a rookie. His averages of 10.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.0 threes on .457 from the floor came in just 26.7 minutes per game, providing steady fantasy value without tanking owners in any specific category. He was used fairly consistently throughout the year and had two stints in the starting lineup – from late December to late January and from March until the end of the season, serving as the Bucks’ starting point guard in the postseason.

He performed well regardless of role, with his biggest increases as a starter coming in scoring (12.5 points) and rebounds (4.0 boards per game). Perhaps most importantly he shot .404 from deep, providing an unexpected source of shooting on a team with a desperate need for complementary players to stretch the floor. Brogdon led qualified rookies in both assists and steals while finishing 15th in the entire league in assist to turnover ratio and built up nice momentum down the stretch. A back injury cost him eight games in March but he didn’t look too much worse for wear in the playoffs so it’s not a major concern. Most impressive was his consistency. From month to month, there were never any real swoons in his production (not counting the three October games). Brogdon shouldn’t have any problems landing near the top-100 again next season.

Thon Maker

ADP: 140 / 137 (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 330/319 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 372/352 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 57

Many felt the Bucks reached by selecting Maker 10th overall and the spotty minutes he received until Parker’s injury didn’t do much to change any opinions. Up to that point, he had only played in half of the first 52 games with just 5.7 minutes per contest. Though Maker started the final 31 games of the year, his average minutes only rose to 13.3 to accompany meager numbers of 4.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.5 blocks and 0.5 threes. His postseason was a little better but there wasn’t anything awe inspiring outside of five blocks in 13 minutes of Game 6 action.

The fantasy numbers weren’t there and likely won’t be this season, but Maker has some attributes that make him an intriguing long-term prospect. He’s got the length needed to rack up blocks and was able to shoot .378 from deep, albeit on very low volume. Though Maker won’t be a fantasy factor, especially when Parker returns, he fared well enough to raise some eyebrows going forward.

Tony Snell

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 138/121 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 178/153 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 80

The former first round pick was traded to the Bucks in exchange for Michael Carter-Williams and finally got a crack at heavy minutes. Snell started all 80 games in which he appeared and averaged 29.2 minutes per game while emerging as a serviceable two guard. Despite the big minutes, his low usage (just 12.2 percent) will cap his fantasy upside.

Snell didn’t blow anyone away with just 8.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 0.7 steals but made huge improvements with his 3-point shooting. He shot 36.1 percent from deep with the Bulls last year and poured them in at a 40.6 percent clip with the Bucks. He saw a spike in the amount of threes that were classified as wide open, as those looks made up nearly 57 percent of all his shots whereas they only accounted for 40 percent of his attempts in Chicago. Overall, his field goal percentage rose from .372 to .455, so expect some regression. Snell’s 1.8 threes provide a sneaky value and while he’s not someone you’ll have to draft, just know that he can provide helpful numbers off the waiver wire in a pinch.

Matthew Dellavedova

ADP: 140 / 139 (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 188/221 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 224/264 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 76

Dellavedova had a shot at low-end fantasy value in a starting role but squandered his opportunity. Though he made 54 starts, he really didn’t improve on any numbers from his 2015-16 bench days in Cleveland – any slight upticks may have been more to do with the extra 1.5 minutes per game than anything else. Delly saw a curious drop in 3-point accuracy, down to .367 after two years over .400 from deep. As expected, he saw fewer “open” looks (where the closest defender is four or more feet away) this year but shot worse on them anyway. Perhaps the sledding gets tougher when you’re not receiving passes from King James.

With averages of just 7.6 points, 1.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.0 threes, Dellavedova isn’t a fantasy factor even if you’re buying into some 3-point bounceback. He’s more than likely lost his crack at starter’s minutes anyway, whether that’s to Brogdon or a player not yet on the roster.

John Henson

ADP: 140 / 139 (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 195/188 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 170/151 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 58

Henson does one thing and does it pretty well when he gets the chance, and that’s swat shots. He was able to gather 1.3 blocks per game in just 19.4 minutes this year, which gave him stretches of specialist value considering he made 39 starts. Astonishingly, it was his worst block rate in three years – his numbers work out to 3.5 blocks per 100 possessions whereas he’d been over 5.0 per 100 possessions the two seasons before. In terms of rebound rate he was only 60th among centers who played at least 15 minutes per game, so you’re really counting him on racking up rejections. He’s a late round guy in deeper leagues and someone to stream if he gets on a block binge.

Mirza Teletovic

ADP: 123 / 138 (ESPN/Yahoo), Total Value: 298/288 (8/9 cat), Per-Game Value: 347/342 (8/9 cat), Games Played: 70

Teletovic signed a big deal in the offseason and looked like a potential huge help for the Bucks in their quest to space the floor. As it turned out, the marksman actually saw his minutes drop from 21.3 to 16.2 per game and saw his efficiency fall from 42.7 percent to a career-worst 37.3 percent. He averaged 1.5 threes per game, but that’s about it. If he can’t shoot better, opponents and fantasy owners alike won’t need to bother keeping an eye on him.

Doctor’s Orders

This team will go as far as Antetokounmpo can take them, and considering he’s already a superstar at age 22 that’s a pretty good setup. Coach Kidd appears to have found a nice gambit with Monroe coming off the bench to bump and bruise opponents’ backup bigs and a full season of Middleton will help tremendously. Another year of development for Brogdon should help them offensively and while he’s not a point guard in the truest sense of the term, putting playmaking responsibilities on him and Giannis isn’t a bad way to go. It’s a shame that Parker will be hurt for a bulk of the year, as it means we probably won’t see Milwaukee’s core at full strength for another season. They lost GM Jeff Hammond to Orlando but he left them enough pieces to contend in the East. They’re not a serious threat to the conference’s elite just yet, but there’s no denying that a Giannis-LeBron matchup would be must-watch TV. The Bucks could stand to add some more reliable shooters and deepen their bench, but the key parts are in place. Their dynamic young core will get older and smarter together, and the best is yet to come.

*Originally published July 26, 2017