Season Wrap: The 2020-21 Houston Rockets

The Rockets entered the season after another postseason disappointment in the bubble, with their Russell Westbrook experiment failing outside of fleeting moments where Westbrook and James Harden managed to play in a complementary way — with Westbrook’s injuries/COVID case also sapping his effectiveness on the biggest stage. They swapped Westbrook and his onerous contract for John Wall and his equally onerous deal, and shortly before the year it came out that James Harden was looking for a change of scenery himself. Another year of retooling was not in the cards and the Rockets dealt The Beard to one of his preferred destinations and quickly set their sights on the top of the draft lottery. At least the Christian Wood acquisition was a win.

How’d It Go?

Not great!

As you can imagine, having a superstar decide he wants out on the eve of the regular season throws most of your planning out the window. While the team looked competent enough with Harden playing half-interested, they got it over with quick and dealt him to Brooklyn. In return they got Jarrett Allen, who was rerouted to Cleveland, and Caris LeVert, who was sent on to Indiana for Victor Oladipo. Moving an MVP candidate for young players and then dealing those young players for an older, injured player (who was an impending free agent) is a bold gambit — or more likely a tank tactic. Oladipo’s Houston tenure was uninspiring to say the least and he was traded to Miami for older spare parts that are also set to hit free agency.

From that point on the Rockets focused on developing the few young players on the roster, though outside of Wood the team didn’t have any fresh faces that anyone would’ve pegged as potential contributors before the season. You’ll see that reflected in the ADPs of the players who finished the season on the roster.

Coaching

Stephen Silas got the rawest deal of any coach in the league this year and it doesn’t seem particularly close. After years of being a featured player in the coaching cycle, Silas finally got a shot. He was expecting to coach a Western Conference hopeful led by Harden, only for The Beard to take his sweet time even showing up, and making it abundantly clear that he wanted out. Even after the trade, the losses mounted, and it was undoubtedly a trying year for Silas, who was forced to work with a lot of players who simply ended up in Houston rather than guys that the team was actively trying to build around.

Although the Rockets endured a lengthy losing streak and plenty of injury issues, the team did start to come together and embody the scrappy underdog archetype that coaches can get players to rally around. It’s tough to judge Silas on this trainwreck of a season considering how most of the team’s personnel wasn’t assembled with any real vision beyond getting the best draft pick possible. The Rockets used 43 starting lineups in 72 games and needed multiple hardship exceptions to even trot out a roster towards the end of the year. Through it all, Silas was able to put out various fires and keep his charges playing hard despite plenty of reasons to fold.

The Players

Christian Wood, PF

ADP: 56/46 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 137/144 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 61/62 (8/9-cat)

After a breakout stretch with the Pistons at the end of 2019-20, Wood was able to get $41 million out of the Rockets. Houston envisioned the big man offering up a wide array of skills to complement James Harden and Russell Westbrook, making the Rockets much more dangerous and unpredictable in the process. We never really got to see how that mix played out but it’s hard to complain about what Wood did manage in his first year with Houston — at least when he was on the floor.

Ankle injuries limited Wood to 41 out of a possible 72 contests, though it’s fair to question how many Wood would’ve gotten into towards the end of the year had the team been in a playoff race. Other than that, though, the Rockets let the big man eat. There wasn’t a ton of offense run specifically for Wood last season and perhaps that’s the Rockets trying to figure out exactly what his ceiling might be after his previous stops had him in the guardrails. Whatever the case, Wood was outstanding as a featured player, and his .374 mark from distance is extremely encouraging. Aside from a disappointing .631 mark at the free throw line on 4.8 attempts per game, there was nothing to complain about beyond Wood’s fleeting availability.

Wood smashed his previous career-bests in every counting stat and was able to keep his field goal percentage in positive territory despite his shot volume nearly doubling, with long stretches of top-35 value before injuries slowed him up. Given that Wood had three straight years of .730 or better free throw shooting prior to this campaign, there may be some natural bounce-back coming as well. You can expect to pay quite a price to secure Wood’s services in drafts moving forward.

John Wall, PG

ADP: 51/61 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 176/239 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 94/167 (8/9-cat)

It had been a while since we had seen Wall, and while availability was an ongoing concern throughout the year — especially after Harden was dealt — he generally looked spry and athletic whenever he was able to take the court. That was the main thing that fantasy managers needed to watch out for, because Wall simply is who he is as a player at this point. A hamstring injury ended his campaign, though it’s also expected that he’ll undergo a knee scope at some point.

Wall’s 6.9 assists per game were a new career-low, but a decent amount of that can be chalked up to the mishmash Houston roster. It’s hard to rack up dimes when players don’t fit together, or stay on the court consistently enough to build chemistry. On the flip side, Wall hit a career-high 2.0 threes per game, but shot .317 from the arc to get there. That had a negative impact on his efficiency overall, but there’s some signs of life — Wall actually shot quite well in catch-and-shoot situations, but was atrocious on pull-up shots. A more organized effort might be able to get him back towards the league average mark.

Being another year removed from Wall’s devastating injuries will be a good thing, but much of the outlook will depend on how the Rockets dress up the rest of the roster.

Kelly Olynyk, PF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 32/28 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 63/65 (8/9-cat)

Olynyk split his season between the Heat and the Rockets. With Miami, Olynyk battled for time in a deep rotation and produced top-112/115 value in 8/9-cat formats. After the trade, he hit the jets and roared his way to a top-12/15 finish. Jumping 100 spots in the rankings in the middle of the season is basically unheard of, especially for a player like Olynyk who is a bit of a known quantity.

With Houston, Olynyk averaged an absurd 19.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks and 1.8 triples per game on .545 from the field and .844 at the line. He was able to get 31.1 mpg as a Rocket, with injuries and tanking directives limiting the team to near-minimum limits on many nights. While there were initially some fears that Olynyk would get rested regularly as an impending free agent on a tanking team, he ended up balling out as one of the only reliable presences on the roster. Once considered cap ballast, Olynyk used the last several weeks of the season to remind teams what he’s capable of. He’s not going to find a role that large on the open market but is obviously a name to watch in case he lands in another fantasy-friendly spot.

Jae'Sean Tate, SF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 75/74 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 116/116 (8/9-cat)

Initially, Tate was in the mix to help fill in the gaps on the wings as a rookie free agent arriving from overseas. In the end, he turned out to be one of Houston’s bright spots and earned a selection to the All-Rookie Second Team. Tate showcased the ability to guard 2-4 and was even given the opportunity to run a little point guard in the season’s closing weeks. The Rockets got a gem in the rough here, and they can comfortably pencil Tate in as a starter for next season. It’s not that they couldn’t upgrade, but there is some nice value in having a young guy like Tate continue to learn and develop knowing that his floor is NBA-caliber contributor.

Fantasy-wise, it’d be good to see him improve as a 3-point shooter because .306 from distance isn’t going to cut it long term. That may have a negative drag on his strong .506 mark from the field overall but it’s a necessary step in his evolution as an NBA player. The defense is there, as are the counting stats. A better version of the Rockets might not have Tate in such a prominent role but there should be a safe floor for him after an impressive rookie season.

Eric Gordon, SG

ADP: N/A / 168 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 301/312 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 147/178 (8/9-cat)

Gordon’s season got off on the wrong foot as he was one of the first players to hit the league’s health and safety protocols in December, and from there it didn’t get much better despite a short burst of top-100 value. While the Rockets dealt away James Harden and had Victor Oladipo and John Wall in and out of the lineup, Gordon wasn’t able to stay healthy enough to capitalize on all the extra minutes and shots available.

For a player whose value is predicated on points and threes, going .329 from behind the arc is bad news, and that’s reflected in his final values. On the other hand, that Gordon still knocked down 2.5 threes a night while shooting poorly suggests that some regression might help him out going forward. Either way, Gordon’s flimsy stat set and lengthy injury history (he missed time with heel, ankle, leg and groin issues in 2020-21) make him more of a specialist pick until he’s able to recapture his old form.

Kevin Porter Jr., PG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 298/337 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 127/245 (8/9-cat)

The Cavs put Porter on ice after a tumultuous offseason off the court, with the team deciding to try and straighten out his personal life before letting him back on the floor. He ended up getting traded to Houston and spent a little time in the G League before getting the call, earning his way back into the league. As far as landing spots go, a rebuilding Rockets team was a good one for Porter, who had very little competition for backcourt minutes.

He didn’t end up being the must-start option that we were hoping to see because of general inconsistency, but Porter did have some massive games that showcased his upside. Those include a 27-3-8 line in his second game of the year, a 22-5-14 outing vs. the Suns and a 50-point, 11-assist, 9-triple game against the Bucks. Although a lot of Porter’s best games were the result of huge minutes and limited options for Stephen Silas, he’s exactly the type of player that Houston should be trying to elevate. The stat set can be great but efficiency may be an issue and we’d expect the Rockets to explore Porter’s fit next to John Wall next season.

Danuel House Jr., SF

ADP: N/A / 165 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 319/323 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 292/292 (8/9-cat)

A Harden-less Rockets team with lots of injuries was supposed to mean good things for House, who established himself as a player capable of standard-league appeal on 3-and-D stats. That didn’t come to pass, as House was also caught up in the injury mix, and the ascendance of Jae’Sean Tate knocked about five minutes off his playing time from the previous season. Add in poor percentages — especially at the line, where House was at least .789 in his first three seasons — and it’s easy to see how he plummeted down the rankings. On a fairly affordable contract, a healthy House should be back and playing a reasonable role for the Rockets next year, but he’s clearly been leapfrogged on the depth chart.

Sterling Brown, SG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 208/190 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 205/184 (8/9-cat)

Brown finally got a chance to play after being buried in Milwaukee, and all of the Rockets’ transactions opened up a chance for him to be more than a bench filler. He responded with career-bests in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, steals and most notably, 3-pointers, where he shot a terrific 42.3 percent. There were stretches of top-180 output and Brown, one of our deep-league sleepers, was able to make good on his opportunity.

Avery Bradley, SG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 357/363 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 327/337 (8/9-cat)

Bradley signed with the Heat after a year with the Lakers but never got off the ground. He ended up missing 26 games with a calf strain plus additional contests for the health and safety protocols, personal reasons and other nagging injuries, and found himself traded to Houston as part of the Victor Oladipo deal. The veteran wasn’t healthy enough to help the Heat in their push to contend and had no place on a Houston roster that was racing to the basement. Bradley can help a team, but not in ways that are conducive to fantasy value.

Kenyon Martin Jr., SF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 220/201 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 170/158 (8/9-cat)

Martin was a project pick in the second round, going prep-to-pro after attending IMG Academy. A depleted roster put Martin on the floor and he played well enough to earn a longer look down the stretch. Although there’s still a long way to go, Martin looked a lot more polished than expected and the athleticism is off the charts so Houston has a potential building-block here. Expect the team to help Martin refine his shooting mechanics — him going .379 from deep as a rookie qualifies as a surprise — but the ability to rebound and chip in defensive stats already makes him an interesting fantasy play in the long term.

D.J. Augustin, PG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 241/253 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 297/317 (8/9-cat)

After running as a starter in Orlando, Augustin signed with the Bucks in free agency, where he was supposed to provide stability and shooting in the second unit. He ended up in Houston after a trade, and like many other players on this list, didn’t really serve a purpose given the Rockets’ lottery focus. While DJA still boasts a stat set that can make him a deep-league, or even potential late-round, value, a reduction in five minutes of playing time — basically a fifth of his workload — rendered him mostly irrelevant in fantasy outside of those nights where the Rockets were running a skeleton crew.

David Nwaba, SF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 311/301 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 207/176 (8/9-cat)

Nwaba played a surprisingly large role in the early going, starting eight of Houston’s first 11 games. His defensive lean and hustle are qualities that this roster needed, and unfortunately a wrist injury cut his season short. Nwaba actually returned early when the Rockets were at their most shorthanded, buying the team a couple games before heading back to the injury list and eventually undergoing surgery. Fixing his jumper would be a big development but as it stands, Nwaba is a fine rotational wing who can grab boards and defensive stats.

D.J. Wilson, PF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 356/354 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 371/368 (8/9-cat)

Wilson was another player who didn’t get a ton of opportunity until late in the year, but all of Houston’s absences created opportunities for him to have a few big games here and there. The points, blocks and threes, while modest, are career-highs for Wilson, but given his depth chart standing there wasn’t a ton to see outside of streaming scenarios in silly season.

Armoni Brooks, PG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 355/352 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 224/221 (8/9-cat)

While Brooks’ final numbers aren’t overly inspiring, he did close the year on a top-50 burst as the Rockets were missing basically all of their other backcourt players. Considering how much of Brooks’ numbers are a result of circumstance, he’s not someone that most fantasy managers will be spending a lot of time thinking about.

Anthony Lamb, SF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 397/402 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 384/394 (8/9-cat)

Lamb signed a two-way deal with the Rockets in early March and was part of a youth movement that took over as the Rockets got crushed by injuries. He didn’t make much of an impact until the end of April when Houston was routinely running a seven- or eight-man rotation. He played well enough to prove he can hang at the NBA level, but the role he saw down the stretch should be considered out of reach next year.

Khyri Thomas, SG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 408/393 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 14/9 (8/9-cat)

Thomas’ season was short but sweet. He was signed via a hardship exception and parlayed his audition into a multi-year deal. Perhaps no player benefited more from Houston’s injury plague — and just about everyone was a candidate — than Thomas, who had huge games (and huge minutes) in his five-game stint. The new contract is a point in his favor but his outlook will be entirely dependent on how Houston fills out its roster this offseason.

Dante Exum, PG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 472/478 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 356/379 (8/9-cat)

Once again, Exum’s season was defined by injuries. A calf strain kept him from ever appearing as a member of the Rockets. Unfortunately, his NBA career is hanging on by a thread.

Fantasy Star

This honorific came down to two players. While Christian Wood has the ceiling to be an early-round option, and often showcased as much, his absences were simply too abundant, leaving Jae’Sean Tate atop the podium. He’s likely to be the only undrafted rookie you’ll find in this section for a number of years, too.

Tate gets the nod here because of his overall consistency — 70 games in this particular season is a huge boost, and considering how quickly Tate proved his value to the Rockets, and in turn fantasy players, he ended up being a steal from the early going. While Tate won’t quite fit the bill of fantasy star, he’s a solid role player and can give you a sprinkling of contributions in multiple categories on any given night. That he was empowered to do so much in his first season could be a boon to his development going forward.

Fantasy Letdown

The Rockets had a number of candidates here, but their deadline sell-off leaves us with one clear choice. Eric Gordon was lined up for plenty of usage once Harden was traded and John Wall and Victor Oladipo were constantly in and out of the lineup, but he couldn’t get going outside of one short burst of startable play. This was Gordon’s second straight year of bad 3-point shooting, and he picked a tough time to go in the tank. It’s unclear what role he’ll fill for Houston in the near future if the team is set on a full rebuild but if he sticks around he should have a chance at the sixth man role he’s historically filled so well. The squandered opportunity is one thing, but Gordon’s health issues compounded the problem by keeping him from ever establishing a rhythm. Bad teams can be fantasy-friendly for chuckers like Gordon, but it just didn’t play out that way.

One to Watch

Houston’s end-of-season carousel of no-name players saw some surprising performances from players like Armoni Brooks, Khyri Thomas and Anthony Lamb, but this has to be Kevin Porter Jr. based on the role he’s expected to hold moving forward. Efficiency is a concern but KPJ showed out as a lead ball-handler and primary scoring option, which is good news considering the state of the roster. It’s also fair to question whether the stat set can take hits to usage as Porter plays alongside John Wall and Christian Wood next year, but perhaps playing with more talented players also elevates his game, as has been the case for so many youngsters around the league. Whatever the case, Houston seems intent on figuring out exactly what they’ve got with Porter, which means that he should get every opportunity to sink or swim next season.

One Burning Question

With a roster this transient, the real question is simply: What talent do the Rockets add this offseason? The only players locked into roles right now appear to be Wood, Tate, Porter and Wall, and odds are the Rockets would love to move off Wall if that’s in any way possible. The rest of the roster looks like a collection of role players and bench options, and ultimately the answer will ride on how much the Rockets are willing to spend and if they’re hoping for a quick turnaround or a serious teardown. As of now there are no questions about the offensive pecking order but Houston will nab a top prospect in the draft and should find plenty of talent available in free agency if they want to try and thread the needle to retool rather than rebuild. How the team’s younger players develop will hinge on the infrastructure that the front office builds around them, so there’s plenty at stake.

*Originally published July 1, 2021