Season Wrap: The 2020-21 Sacramento Kings

Sacramento got outstanding seasons from three of its best players and landed a rookie who tilted the floor. They still missed the playoffs by a mile and had one of the worst defensive efforts of all time. Kangz.

How’d it Go?

The Kings have been looking to threaten for a playoff berth over the last couple of seasons, and they actually have enough intriguing young talent to make a case for such a run. Unfortunately, while they’ve taken baby steps, the rest of the Western Conference has improved by leaps and bounds, with even the basement-dwellers compiling assets that could lead to speedy turnarounds. The saddest part of it all is that the Kings are dealing with a lot of self-inflicted wounds, particularly behind the bench. But we’ll get to that later.

Under new leadership, the Kings seemed to take a pragmatic approach to start the year, making minor additions in free agency and resisting the urge to make any big blow-up trades — though the tampering case of Bogdan Bogdanovic did block at least one major move. Instead, they waited until the trade deadline to make some shrewd deals, dumping the previous regime’s bad bets in Cory Joseph and Nemanja Bjelica, bringing in younger, more athletic options like Delon Wright and Terence Davis. It also helps that the Kings totally nailed their first-round pick with ROY finalist Tyrese Haliburton, who looked mature beyond his years and was immediately a must-play player.

But for all of those marginal wins, and an incredible resurgence from Harrison Barnes, the Kings still couldn’t string together enough wins to be a serious postseason threat, enduring two nine-game losing streaks. They boasted one of the worst defenses in the league and featured their usual level of dysfunction and disconnect, with the team espousing values that didn’t at all manifest on the floor. Their faint playoff hopes were dashed when De’Aaron Fox hit the health and safety protocols but the Kings should at least feel good about their core. That might not be enough with so many teams ramping up for their competitive windows, but the building blocks are there.

Coaching

Two seasons, two 31-41 records. Luke Walton has one of the quickest, most dynamic attacking guards in the league and while both he and the players keep pounding tempo as a core principle, it’s not something that seems to be a point of emphasis when the rubber hits the road. It almost feels accidental when the Kings start spamming a De’Aaron Fox – Richaun Holmes pick-and-roll. There’s been a continued lack of accountability on defense, with the Kings offering no resistance from start to finish. That Walton continually talks about the need to improve the team’s weaker areas only to play slow or insist on rotational minutes for weak defenders like Joseph is cause for alarm, or at this point, just confusion.

The Kings have also struggled to develop Marvin Bagley (injuries play a significant part) under Walton’s watch while Buddy Hield has plateaued, with the coach and shooting guard butting heads repeatedly.

To put it another way, the Kings got career years out of Fox, Barnes and Holmes, while adding one of the top rookies in the class in Haliburton, and Walton was unable to guide them to an improvement in the W-L department.

Why the Kings chose to retain Walton rather than hit the market for a number of promising candidates remains to be seen, but one imagines that his leash is short for this upcoming season. The new front office has certainly shown that they won’t make any rash decisions, but two seasons of what the Kings have put forth should be enough to call it and start fresh. The need for stability in the building is dire, but at what cost?

The Players

De'Aaron Fox, PG

ADP: 44/39 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 50/70 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 47/70 (8/9-cat)

Fox was sensational for most of the season, blossoming as a go-to scorer with a predilection for hitting shots in the clutch. Already one of the league’s most efficient finishers, Fox was kind enough to increase his shot volume (mostly on drives) and keep his percentages up in the process. He was also one of the league’s best at drawing fouls, though that’s a double-edged sword given his mediocre free throw numbers. Couple that with some flaky 3-point shooting on skyrocketing volume, and there’s still room to improve here — in fact, those weak spots prevented Fox from meeting his ADP.

Other than that, though, there was plenty to like. The Kings can build around an All-Star caliber player with a trademark attribute (quickness), an elite pick-and-roll partner (should they re-sign him, anyway) and can alleviate some of the burden on his shoulders as a ball-handler (and perhaps his turnovers) with the arrival of Tyrese Haliburton. Until Fox cleans up his freebies and turnovers, the fantasy ceiling is capped, but the floor is more than passable as is.

Buddy Hield, SF

ADP: 76/55 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 40/41 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 79/80 (8/9-cat)

By many statistical measures, last season was one of the worst of Hield’s career. The points were his lowest since 2017-18. The 3-point percentage was the lowest since his rookie year. The field goal percentage was a career-worst. Hield also saw his usage cut as the Kings funneled touches to their other backcourt options — who can blame them? — though that also had the impact of limiting turnovers. Hield remains one of the league’s top high-volume 3-point threats, even with declines by his own standards, but that just might not be good enough anymore given the big contract he’s on.

While the stat set is capable of delivering early-round numbers, Hield looks relegated to more modest middle-round production with the current configuration of the Kings roster. A constant in trade rumors (his likes on social media don’t help put out any fires, either), we’ll see if Hield returns to Sacramento, under a coach who seems to have an axe to grind with the sharpshooter. Even with the things that Hield has been forced to withstand, including suboptimal pace, strange possessions where he’s tasked with being the primary ball-handler and public scoldings, he’s remained a solid, undervalued fantasy play.

Harrison Barnes, SF

ADP: 142/188 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 86/83 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 90/83 (8/9-cat)

Barnes’ journey has been a winding one, from his days as a role player with the Warriors to an overpaid, miscast No. 1 option in Dallas. When he was dealt to the Kings he looked like an empty scorer on a bad contract but something seemed to click this season as Barnes trimmed down his diet of shots to 3-pointers and looks at the rim, nearly eliminating mid-range jumpers from his game. That helped result in a career-best mark from the field, and Barnes also became more than a spot-up shooter. He set new career-bests in rebounds and notably assists, jumping to 3.5 per game (and rocketing past his previous high in assist percentage). For all of the knocks on Walton, he did manage to get the most out of Barnes.

It’s rare for players of Barnes’ age to suddenly transform their games without some major changes either under the hood or on the roster around them, but he was able to do this damage relatively under the radar. If he can keep this up and turn his contract into one of positive value it’ll be huge as the Kings try to build around their backcourt core. Barnes being a reliable two-way presence is big for a Kings team that craves stability.

Richaun Holmes, C

ADP: 120/100 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 48/30 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 57/33 (8/9-cat)

Holmes delivered another massive season, posting career-bests in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and free throw percentage, also managing to deliver the second-highest field goal percentage of his career. Holmes was one of the only defensive bright spots on the entire roster and his work as a roll man is a catalyst in the Kings’ occasionally explosive offense. It’s an invaluable release valve for the team’s guards to bank on. His push shot is automatic and his athleticism helps cover for deficiencies on the perimeter. The only real quibble with his game is the lack of a 3-point shot, but with how much Holmes does to actually help the Kings win games, that’s an extremely small concern.

Holmes’ breakout in Sacramento has caught the attention of teams around the league, who should be lining up with big offers for him as a free agent. As of this writing, the Kings can only offer him four years and $47 million without needing to clear additional cap space. Odds are he can beat that on the open market. As a nice bonus, the addition of Hassan Whiteside seemed to scare off many fantasy managers, creating huge value at Holmes’ laughably low ADP. It was no sure thing that the Kings would keep Holmes locked in as their frontcourt leader but he held up his end of the bargain and the organization didn’t bungle the situation.

Tyrese Haliburton, PG

ADP: 94 / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 67/61 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 70/66 (8/9-cat)

There are no limits to the superlatives that we could heap upon Haliburton after an impressive rookie season. The guard exceeded the expectations set by a sterling scouting report, posting a well-rounded stat line on solid efficiency with extremely low turnovers in big minutes. Those are all rare attributes for any guard, let alone one getting his first taste of NBA action on a bad team. An instinctual playmaker, knock-down shooter and polished combo guard with a high basketball IQ, Haliburton should be part of the Kings’ core for years to come.

The next step in his evolution will be getting his own shots as opposing defenses will start to challenge him to win one-on-one scenarios rather than let him create for others. That’s an exciting prospect for fantasy managers, who can already view Haliburton as a player who will stay on the floor by virtue of elevating his teammates. Staying in his lane resulted in a breakout middle-round season, with a knee injury the only thing that could slow him down. Early on it was apparent that Haliburton is a guy the Kings needed on the court — on both ends — and he’s authored an exciting start to a promising NBA career.

Marvin Bagley III, PF

ADP: 121/105 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 270/284 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 230/246 (8/9-cat)

Bagley was a disappointment in his sophomore season, with the campaign derailed by injuries. He followed that up in his third year by disappointing in a campaign derailed by injury. The big man missed a month with a left-hand fracture and suffered a groin injury that cut his season short in its last couple of weeks, but didn’t appear to be a much-improved player even when he was on the floor. His stats are remarkably close to those of his rookie season, only with slight improvements as a 3-point shooter and steep declines in blocks and free throw percentage.

The presence of Richaun Holmes complicates factors and forced Bagley to play out of his fit at power forward, with Bagley not helping matters by shooting poorly from in tight. With the big man liking social media posts about getting out of Sacramento, it seems like he and the Kings are destined for a split. The weight of being a No. 2 pick in a loaded class that’s seen players picked after him go on to incredible success is a lot, and Sacramento hasn’t proven to be a developmental environment that can get him back on track. Perhaps he’ll find his footing somewhere else, but to this point, Bagley can’t even stay on the floor consistently enough to show where he may or may not be improving.

Delon Wright, PG

ADP: 87/184 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 68/58 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 92/79 (8/9-cat)

It’s a bit curious that Wright keeps getting shuttled around the league, but for now, that’s to the Kings’ benefit. The versatile, rangy guard was able to make a career-high 39 starts in a career-high 27.7 mpg, but was ultimately dealt away from the rebuilding Pistons at the deadline despite his solid play. Wright was a top-80/70 (8/9-cat) player with the Pistons and a top-95/90 option with the Kings and saw his average playing time dip by about four minutes a night after the deal, though he did benefit from injuries to Fox and Haliburton down the stretch.

Unfortunately, Sacramento’s backcourt will provide more blockers to Wright’s value than he would’ve encountered in Detroit, but his ability to guard multiple positions will provide the Kings a template for a tenacious perimeter defense unit if they want to go that way. For fantasy purposes, there’s a lot to enjoy given Wright’s ability to chip in rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and triples, so hopefully he’s able to carve out a sixth man role.

Hassan Whiteside, C

ADP: 58/53 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 321/328 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 285/302 (8/9-cat)

While Whiteside’s fantasy resurgence with the Blazers was purely the result of an unchallenged starting role, that didn’t prevent fantasy players from chasing the dream again this year with some ridiculously optimistic ADPs. In their defense, it would be peak Kings to not only sign Whiteside, but play him over Richaun Holmes. The Kings got this one right, however, knocking Whiteside from the rotation fairly quickly and limiting him to timeshare minutes at best. He was still able to post blocks specialist value whenever he took the floor, but that’s about all that can be said about Whiteside going forward. The odds of him emerging as a starter around the league are slim given his on-court impact or lack thereof.

Terence Davis, SG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 201/208 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 267/263 (8/9-cat)

Davis was a member of the All-Rookie team in his first season, this after going undrafted and signing with the Raptors following a single game in Summer League. Last summer he was brought up on seven different charges relating to domestic violence. He was in and out of the Toronto rotation and was far less consistent than he was in his first year, eventually getting traded to the Kings for a song at the deadline. Davis got more opportunity in Sacramento and seemed to have some weight lifted off his shoulders by the move, averaging 11.1 points, 3.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.0 3-pointers in 21.5 mpg as a King. Davis enters restricted free agency this offseason.

Maurice Harkless, SF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 318/311 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 300/274 (8/9-cat)

Harkless took on a larger role than expected for the Kings, starting in 20 of his 26 appearances after a trade from Miami. While Harkless’ days of standard-league relevance are deep in the rearview, you could still see some of that old appeal if you squint: 6.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.6 blocks per game with the Kings. Now, Harkless shouldn’t be in contention for a starting role next year, and injuries have impacted his ability to play a ton anyway, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but it was good to see him resume his multi-cat ways, even for a spell. Harkless is a serviceable veteran to plug the back of a rotation, which has appeal around the league — his value is just greatest to a team that won’t ask him to play as much as Sacramento did.

Damian Jones, C

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 334/329 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 338/326 (8/9-cat)

Jones bounced around a bit, starting with the Suns before getting waived and landing with the Lakers, who dumped him before Jones inked a pair of 10-day deals with the Kings. Those went well enough to lead to a multi-year deal (next season is non-guaranteed) for the athletic big man, who even played backup center over Hassan Whiteside down the stretch. The per-minute intrigue is nothing new but fantasy managers can keep eyeing Jones with skepticism until he carves out a consistent role.

Chimezie Metu, PF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 341/336 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 340/339 (8/9-cat)

Metu was a reclamation project from the Spurs that turned out great for the Kings. He played with noticeable energy and earned a larger role from Luke Walton, not skipping a beat even after missing a big chunk of time with a wrist fracture. After a slow start to his career Metu was able to show that he can be a capable rotation big and secured a standard contract after beginning the season on a two-way deal. The next question for him is where exactly he slots in, as Metu is a shade undersized to be a full-time center but doesn’t space the floor well enough (yet) to be considered a full-time power forward. There were a few moments of fantasy appeal when the Kings were dealing with multiple frontcourt injuries, but other than that the year was more beneficial for the Kings than fantasy folks.

Justin James, PG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 438/442 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 487/484 (8/9-cat)

James is a young player who got limited opportunities last season, which is a bit of a surprise considering the state of the team’s wing depth and general lack of meaningful games down the stretch. James vastly improved his efficiency and had some of the better defensive metrics on the team. He’s a 3-and-D prospect on the older side at 25 years old, but was still a player who showed enough (including a career-best 31-point game against the Grizzlies) to warrant a longer look. With a non-guaranteed contract for next year, it remains to be seen if that look will come from the Kings or someone else.

Kyle Guy, PG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 443/447 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 489/483 (8/9-cat)

Guy put together a strong preseason but wasn’t able to parlay it into minutes in a deep guard group, and even when injuries hit down the stretch he never got much of a chance to get into rhythm. While he’s a fan favorite, his NBA future is in doubt, and Guy’s poor efficiency won’t help his case as he heads to restricted free agency.

Jahmi'us Ramsey, SG

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 468/465 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 464/450 (8/9-cat)

Hamstring and groin injuries prevented Ramsey from making much of an impact in his first season. He could serve as a source of scoring punch in the second unit if the Kings don’t add to their wing depth, but he’ll need to earn his keep before anyone considers him in fantasy. A traditional offseason should help considerably as Ramsey had a hard time getting his buckets efficiently, even in the G League, and learning the team’s system at a more leisurely pace will help him find his footing.

Robert Woodard II, SF

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 520/513 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 524/520 (8/9-cat)

Woodard didn’t accomplish a ton at the NBA level in his rookie season but put together some interesting work in the G League bubble, averaging a double-double despite being 6’7″. An athletic wing with a long wingspan, Woodard offers intriguing defensive potential for a Kings team that’s light on that end of the floor. His immediate prospects of playing time are going to rely on improvement as a 3-point shooter, at minimum, but Woodard has the looks of a solid developmental bet.

Fantasy Star

While De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton, and even Harrison Barnes, can lay claim to the honor, for the second straight year it’s got to go to Richaun Holmes. It’s rare that a stint with the Kings actually improves a player’s stock league-wide but Holmes’ abilities stand out on a defense-starved roster, and his work as an elite roller bodes well for his fit with so many guards around the league. His chemistry with Fox and Haliburton has given him ample opportunity to refine his touch around the rim and should have more imaginative coaches daydreaming about what they could acquire in free agency. He’s an early-middle-round player and it’s his quick rise and overall consistency that gives him the nod.

Fantasy Letdown

This can’t go to anyone but Marvin Bagley, who once again spent more time on the injured list than he did on the court. Even when he is available you can feel and see Bagley pressing as the rest of his draft class ascends to stardom, though the fact that the Kings offense works best with spacing around Fox-Holmes pick-and-rolls only makes everything look worse. Amid the backdrop of Bagley leaving not-so-subtle hints that he’d like to ply his trade somewhere other than Sacramento, it’s clear that a change of scenery would work best for all parties. His trade market can’t be great, however, as he’s increasingly looked like a player from a bygone era, whose health hasn’t allowed him to disprove the theory. It’d be one thing if Bagley’s fantasy game was lacking (which it is), but it’s another entirely that he can’t stay on the court long enough to generate any kind of positive momentum.

One to Watch

It’s Buddy Hield, but not necessarily for the reasons that get other players slotted in here. While most of the guys in this section for other teams are potential breakout players who showed well in limited opportunity, we’re keeping an eye on Hield given the possibility that he gets traded. We’ve seen Hield deliver early-round seasons before and ideally whoever acquires him (if a deal happens) figures out a system that maximizes his skills. It might be enough if he simply ends up on a team with a less-crowded backcourt. Regardless, Hield is likely to go underappreciated in fantasy yet again. Add in the potential for positive regression in the percentages and Hield profiles as a player to pay close attention to when draft season rolls around.

One Burning Question

What does Monte McNair have up his sleeve? His first season at the helm didn’t see any massive changes, but odds are that at least one major player is off the books at some point next season, if not before. The Bogdanovic fiasco blocked the most significant transaction in the chamber but Bagley, Barnes and Hield have all been in the rumor mill in the last year. There’s nothing wrong with McNair taking a season to observe the roster up close and make some upgrades at the margins, but it’s plain as day that the Kings, as currently constructed, don’t have a high ceiling. Some moves are coming and we’re just going to have to wait and see what McNair has in mind. Whether that’s behind the bench or on the court, the Kings will look different moving forward, with those unknown changes bringing about significant ramifications in fantasy.

*Originally published July 9, 2021