Season Wrap: The 2021-22 Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves nailed the pick of Anthony Edwards last season and continued to overhaul their roster, adding hard-nosed Patrick Beverley and rounding out the team’s depth. A full offseason with Chris Finch at the controls meant that we’d get a better grip on how the team wants to play. With ownership and management tumult in the background, could the Wolves block out the noise, take a collective step and end their playoff drought?

How’d It Go?

Indeed they could. The Wolves went 23-49 in 2020-21 but made the big leap up to 46-36, handling their business in a Play-In game to end the franchise’s postseason drought. Getting back to the playoffs should erase the taste of the contentious Jimmy Butler era and gives Minnesota something exciting to build around, even if playoff ball did expose some potentially fatal flaws in this roster core.

Karl-Anthony Towns no longer has to be The Guy for the Wolves, though it always helps when he is. The rise of Anthony Edwards gives Minnesota another dynamic scoring presence and he was all over highlight reels this season thanks to his explosive play. D’Angelo Russell may not be the best fit for a title contender but has become a better playmaker over time and has grown into a role that doesn’t require him to hunt for shots all the time.

One of the Wolves’ biggest improvements came from their acquisition of Patrick Beverley, who brought a certain edge that the Wolves have lacked since Butler. Most importantly, Beverley’s abrasiveness is always directed outward — at other teams, their fans, their coaches, or the officials — rather than towards teammates that he feels aren’t meeting his standards. That was a problem the last time Minnesota brought in a tone-setter like that, but Beverley was able to drag his teammates into the fight without tearing them down. For the various drawbacks in his game, Beverley was a huge part of the team’s culture shift.

Add in a fun one-two PF punch of Jarred Vandberilt and Jalen McDaniels, whose swoons and surges seemed to time up nicely, and you’ve got a young team that was able to win a Play-In game and give the Grizzlies a bit of a push in the first round of the playoffs. It wasn’t perfect, but it was a big improvement over the franchise’s recent results.

Coaching

A full season of Chris Finch, or perhaps a full offseason of Chris Finch, worked well for the Wolves. After he was plucked out of relative obscurity (in terms of the usual head coach rumor mill) last season, Finch finally had a chance to put his stamp on the roster and the team’s style of play. The Wolves finished seventh in offensive rating (113.8) and 13th in defensive rating (111.0), up from 25th (109.3) and 28th (114.5) a year ago. That’s a mighty leap to make, and Finch’s style of play seemed to really sink in with the players.

The Wolves fired up a ton of 3-pointers and while the coach himself has suggested that he’s pretty hands-off in terms of the offense, his players have praised his schematic acumen in public interviews. He seems to have an honest, straightforward style without being a taskmaster, which appeared to help the team through the ups and downs of the season, as well. Finch pushing the right buttons on the rotation led to a fall but eventual bounce-back for guys like Taurean Prince and Jordan McLaughlin, and Finch was able to keep Karl-Anthony Towns on an even keel after a dreadful Play-In performance against the Clippers. The Wolves rarely folded and actually looked excited to play defense on most nights, which isn’t something that you could often say about KAT or Russell in the past.

Finch has overseen a huge increase in winning percentage that’s backed up by numbers under the hood, and has gotten total buy-in from players who are eager to build on their first taste of success. We’d say that that’s pretty good going. Finch isn’t one of the game’s elite coaches yet, but he’s heading down the right path.

The Players

ADP: 8/8 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 4/3 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 9/8 (8/9-cat)

Towns bounced back from a career-worst shooting season (.486) to get back into first-round territory for fantasy GMs. While he didn’t blow the doors off or reach his top-3 upside (we’re talking per-game there), considering how many late-first, early-second round picks ended up being major busts, odds are his fantasy managers were thrilled to get 74 games out of the big man. He set a three-year high in games played, which was a nice response from a guy who used to be an automatic every-night player after two unfortunate campaigns.

Althought KAT posted a new career-low in rebounds and saw his assists drop by about one per contest, his gains in efficiency and a new personal best in swipes allowed him to take a slight step forward again. While the specifics of Towns’ numbers may fluctuate as he continues to make his way through the league, the general shape will remain the same. KAT is one of the most consistent players in the business and is about as safe as it gets in the first round. Availability will be the key, and this year KAT was ready to go just about every night.

ADP: 51/48 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 25/30 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 38/42 (8/9-cat)

As a rookie, Edwards needed some time to find his footing and only took off after D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley exited the lineup for extended stretches. He capitalized on those opportunities to finish on a top-50 sprint. The big question was whether or not Edwards could follow that up in his sophomore season, and the answer was an emphatic yes.

Edwards’ athleticism put him all over the highlight reel and he gives Minnesota a dynamic scoring punch that they’ve never really had before, with all due respect to Karl-Anthony Towns. While the monster jams are the things that fans remember most, the biggest improvement for Edwards actually came from behind the arc, where he became a league-average 3-point threat (.360) after shooting just .325 in his first season. In fact, scoring efficiency in general was a huge area of improvement for Ant Man, who went from .416 to .441 on his field goals even with an increase in volume. His 1.5 steals per game were a nice cherry on top. Edwards proved he could be a borderline early-round player, and is still in the early part of his development. Fantasy managers should expect to pay a hefty price in next season’s drafts.

ADP: 73/75 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 62/81 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 60/74 (8/9-cat)

In last year’s Draft Guide, we wrote:

“The interplay between Russell and Edwards is going to be the deciding factor. We think that there’s enough available to everyone for Russell to deliver a top-75 season, though we might see his game shift a little bit. Expect some more assists at the expense of a few shots.”

That’s exactly what we saw, with Russell sliding down the pecking order to let Edwards become the top perimeter scorer, instead embracing a role as a key floor-spacer and offensive distributor. The key thing for D’Lo, as it is for so many others, was health. After knee injuries limited his activity in his first season-plus with the Wolves, this year Russell was able to play a reasonable amount of games. Additionally, Russell was also an improved on-court defender. It didn’t mean much for fantasy managers but it was an important step he needed to take for his NBA outlook. Russell may never be a plus-defender but any progress will help. Another postseason in which Russell was essentially locked up is something that the Wolves will have to wrestle with as they try and improve the roster, but fantasy managers won’t have any qualms about his play this year.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 141/133 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 107/103 (8/9-cat)

Though not on the same tier as Minnesota’s most talented players, Beverley is right up there with them in terms of impact and influence. His attitude was infectious, helping Chris Finch inspire the Wolves to actually expend some effort on the defensive side of the ball. Beverley is always grinding for an edge, usually in the form of getting under someone’s skin, and he’s willing to drag his own teammates into the deep end to get them involved in the mucky environment he creates. His unique brand of leadership gave the Wolves some much-needed swagger, with a talented group playing their way into believing that they can beat anyone on any given night. The Wolves mirrored his attitude for better or worse.

Fantasy-wise, Beverley missed enough games to frustrate managers, but was generally worth starting whenever he was in the active lineup. He set new career-highs in assists and blocks while also notching a four-year best in steals, which is a great recipe for success. A great fit in Minnesota’s starting five, Beverley managed to rise above a potential logjam at his position and delivered his best fantasy season since his Clippers prime. Count it as a win for anyone quick enough to scoop him off the wire early on.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 86/70 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 128/108 (8/9-cat)

Vanderbilt had always been more intrigue than production in his first three seasons, but fully broke out as a starter for the up-and-coming Wolves this year. The athletic forward set new personal bests in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and of course, playing time. A voracious rebounder and eager defender, Vanderbilt flying around from corner to corner as a help defender or locking up his opponent as a switchable on-ball threat lifted the entire team’s defense.

Unfortunately, Vanderbilt’s limitations as an offensive player (don’t expect much more than two-handed slams) prevented him from cracking his ceiling, as the Wolves couldn’t stomach him for much more than his 25 minutes a night. It was more than enough to keep him fantasy-relevant until a late-season swoon–which could’ve been part of more focused, playoff-style teams playing him off the floor offensively–and gives him easy homework assignments over the summer. Vanderbilt may not be the team’s long-term starter at PF but he’s capable of the work and should always have a role thanks to his boundless energy.

ADP: N/A / 125 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 148/150 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 180/181 (8/9-cat)

McDaniels rode a big finish in 2020-21 to some sleeper appeal as a potential 1-1-1 (steals-blocks-threes) performer but struggles out of the gate prevented him from holding onto a starting gig. While his defensive effort never waned, McDaniels had a rough start as a shooter and as a role player around three gifted scorers, missing your open shots is not going to beget success. Defensively McDaniels showed all the tools that make him so interesting, but was among the league’s most egregious foulers. There’s still room to improve there despite strong effort overall.

He was able to heat up with a top-120 month heading into the All-Star break but then battled injuries beyond that, limiting his impact in the fantasy playoffs. Even so, there were encouraging signs; he shot .296 from distance before the All-Star game and was up to .396 after, albeit in a smaller sample. Consistency on offense will be paramount to his future, though a pairing with Vanderbilt gives the Wolves two hyperactive, athletic defenders who can offer a thunder-and-lightning approach on offense. McDaniels needs to maintain league-average shooting and keep on adding to his off-the-dribble touch, but it was a season of marginal improvement for a versatile second-year player. It didn’t make fantasy managers happy but there’s still breakout hope in the years to come.

ADP: 127/133 (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 155/129 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 230/198 (8/9-cat)

Beasley had stepped into the void consistently as a member of the Wolves, jumping into a large role whenever D’Angelo Russell was absent. This past season saw those opportunities diminish, and with Anthony Edwards leaving him in the dust, Beasley struggled to gain much traction. His best run of play this year was when Russell and Edwards were out of the lineup but improved health for the duo meant that Beasley’s fantasy appeal was limited to obvious injury fill-in spots and during his fleeting hot streaks. He did shoot .452 from distance after the All-Star break, but is a boom-or-bust option by nature in the role he was given.

A volume-gunner with dwindling volume, Beasley went from late-round upside shot to easy drop. His playing time and points both dropped significantly, which just didn’t leave enough meat on the bone for fantasy players.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 159/160 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 236/237 (8/9-cat)

Reid proved to be an effective backup center with enough punch at the rim and 3-point ability to keep the offense moving. Unfortunately for Reid, this was the first of his three NBA seasons where Karl-Anthony Towns stayed healthy all year long, which meant that his playing time fell to career-low levels. Despite his solid play when given the chance, Reid simply didn’t come across enough opportunity to be a true difference-maker in fantasy. He was an automatic stream whenever KAT was out but the emergence of Minnesota’s PF group prevented him from soaking up a few extra minutes that might’ve led to a top-200 season.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 225/215 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 299/288 (8/9-cat)

Prince has been a bit lost in the wilderness since his heyday in Atlanta, but it could not be more fitting for a Prince to find a home in Minnesota. His final value marks hide how strong his finish was, as Prince was on a legitimate top-100 run over the last several weeks of the season, including double-digit scoring in 11 of his final 15 contests. It was a nice response after he fell out of the rotation earlier in the campaign. On the other hand, Prince posted the second-lowest playing time of his career, so it’s not like managers could truly rely on him, even in deeper leagues, until McDaniels or Vanderbilt (or both) were sidelined. The old 3-and-D stat set bubbled to the surface at times, but Prince’s best run of play came too late to help most fantasy GMs. Kudos to him for turning his season around either way.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 258/249 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 319/307 (8/9-cat)

Nowell’s ascent has been slow but this year he was able to deliver scoring punch with tremendous efficiency, and he would overtake Beasley as Minnesota’s go-to bench gunner for a stretch of time. Of course, Nowell was only elevated to significant playing time when Russell and Edwards were battling injury, but he still gets credit for making important strides in his game. Nowell is a crafty mid-range scorer that’s not afraid to shoot, but that kind of profile needs consistent minutes in order to play in fantasy.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 261/253 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 322/310 (8/9-cat)

McLaughlin had been a deep-league sleeper of sorts in past seasons, with reasonable per-minute output suggesting that he could help a fantasy squad in the right situation. The acquisition of Pat Beverley put the kibosh on his appeal for the most part, as McLaughlin spent most of the season out of the rotation as the third PG on the Wolves. He was able to scratch and claw his way into the mix, aided by injuries (there’s a common theme for you), and helped out managers who were scrambling for assists and steals with low turnovers. A quality depth guard in the league, McLaughlin needs a better opportunity in order to really get onto the fantasy radar.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 430/428 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 331/335 (8/9-cat)

The Moose was loose, back in the NBA after a stint in Germany and the G League. Thrust back onto the big stage amid the NBA’s run of COVID absences, Monroe made stops in Minnesota, Washington, Utah and Milwaukee before ending up back in Minnesota to close out the season. He had a couple vintage lines, but only in those “last man standing” situations when teams were signing guys off the street just to meet roster minimums.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 385/381 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 464/466 (8/9-cat)

Once a promising 3-and-D prospect–if he could just fix that jumper!–Okogie was faded hard by the Wolves, ending up with career-lows in both appearances and playing time. If you’re desperate for a positive, Okogie did shoot a new personal best from 3-point range. Sure, it was only .304, but it’s better than nothing. The Wolves tried out Okogie as the starting power forward to open the season but he was quickly lapped by Vanderbilt, McDaniels and Prince, leaving too much to overcome in his quest for rotation minutes.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 411/416 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 480/481 (8/9-cat)

Knight had flashes in his rookie year with the Hawks but landed with Minnesota on a two-way deal over the offseason. He ended up in purgatory; not in the rotation but still on a roster with a very thin center group, meaning that he was stapled to the bench instead of playing with the G League. Knight might not have gotten much out of G League play either, as he scored 31 and 33 points in his two outings at that level. Fouling was an issue, as expected for such a raw product, but Knight showed his upside when the Wolves were dealing with COVID, including a 20 & 11 performance against a full-strength Celtics team. We’ll see if he can continue to develop, whether that’s in Minnesota or otherwise.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 449/449 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 525/519 (8/9-cat)

Layman has been a name for the diehards in the past. He doesn’t get to play much (outside of a run as a starter when he first got to Minnesota that was disrupted by a major foot injury) but has a half decent fantasy game when he can find consistent minutes. The per-minute numbers are still decent but Layman was buried at the very end of a deep forward/wing group.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 464/469 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 542/547 (8/9-cat)

Bolmaro earned Manu Ginobili comparisons coming out of the draft and while that’s a long ways off, there were instances where you could see the dots connect. At his best, Bolmaro’s a quality secondary ball-handler with good size for his position. He didn’t do enough to climb above dynasty prospect status, but was called upon for a few spot starts here and there. Bolmaro is a name for deep-leaguers to remember.

ADP: N/A / N/A (ESPN/Yahoo) | Total Value: 556/556 (8/9-cat) | Per-Game Value: 565/560 (8/9-cat)

Wright is a tough, smart guard who signed a two-way deal with the Wolves after going undrafted. He suffered a left UCL injury that knocked him out of the picture for a while and was never on the fantasy radar.

Fantasy Star

There’s a temptation to go with Anthony Edwards here because of all his flash and dash, but it’s impossible to pass on Karl-Anthony Towns. We know exactly what KAT can do, and he basically gets into the same ballpark every night. He’s no longer considered an unimpeachable iron man, but it’s not like you pick him with the expectation of missing big chunks of time. One of fantasy’s most dependable elite players, Towns was right at his ADP and gave managers great peace of mind with his strong availability.

Fantasy Letdown

Most of the Wolves were able to pull their weight in fantasy, but the one guy who seemed to struggle is Malik Beasley. Better health for Minnesota’s other guards and wings knocked Beasley down a peg, turning him into a situational pickup and 3-point streamer. His name was on the trade block as an expendable piece of the puzzle and perhaps fantasy GMs will be pulling for a move this summer. Beasley can be a 20-point guy when the shots are available to him, but those days look over in Minnesota. He didn’t crush managers as a late-round selection, though anyone who held on too long definitely missed out on more impactful options.

Beasley, like others in a long line before him, is a good example of the perils managers can face when drafting a volume-based perimeter scorer. The floor is exceedingly low when things aren’t breaking the right way.

One to Watch

Jaden McDaniels was a popular sleeper option entering last season but struggled out of the gates and lost his starting spot to Jarred Vanderbilt. Things seemed to reverse course as the season went along and by the end of the year it was McDaniels who was back in the good graces of fantasy GMs while Vanderbilt struggled to do more than grab rebounds. Perhaps managers who were burned by McDaniels’ slow start will be turned off entering drafts, but we’re still intrigued by his stat set as a low-maintenance fit with Minnesota’s other starters. There’s a lot of potential here and we know that McDaniels can be a must-start fantasy guy. The key will be hitting the ground running, but another year of development under Finch’s staff should be good for him.

One Burning Question

How aggressive do the Wolves get in improving their roster? Minnesota can use this past season as a springboard, but it will require some tough conversations. Towns, Edwards and Finch are the core, and Beverley signed a contract extension after all the heavy lifting he did culture-wise. Russell seems to be part of the core, and his friendship with KAT was a big story when the team acquired him, but his dreadful postseason is going to force the organization to really think about whether he’s The Guy in the long term. McDaniels and Vanderbilt make a nice combo, but the Wolves could increase their depth by adding a true starting-caliber PF and having the two young guns wreak havoc as complementary bench players who slot into many lineup conversations. They’ll want to avoid stagnation, especially with new ownership at the helm, and could be all over the rumor mill as they look to add around their young stars.

*Originally published June 4, 2022